Falling



Competition for the left guard spot in Green Bay: When the dust settled from the Packers’ 2009 season, there was some sense that left guard Daryn Colledge’s left guard position could be turned over. Colledge hadn’t played well enough to guarantee a starting role in 2010, and he sat out the early part of the offseason program after refusing to sign his restricted free-agent tender. The Packers were looking for a place to play promising backup T.J. Lang, and they also would like to find a place for center/guard Jason Spitz if he returns healthy from a back injury. But this week, two revelations diminished that sense of competition — at least for the time being. Colledge signed his tender and Lang was revealed to have undergone surgery on his left wrist, putting him on the sideline until training camp. That turn of events could give Colledge enough time to lay important groundwork during organized team activities to retain the starting job in 2010.



Rising



Chicago’s reputation in the Cutler-Orton swap: Those who wanted to take a short-term view of the Jay Cutler-Kyle Orton trade last season noted the Bears probably wouldn’t have done much worse with Orton at quarterback in 2010. But any notion that Denver had stumbled into a steal should be alleviated by now. The Broncos have done nothing this offseason but collect quarterbacks, including a draft-day trade for future starter Tim Tebow. It’s clear the Broncos want no part of a future with Kyle Orton as their starter. Despite his struggles last season, Cutler remains the Bears’ starter for the foreseeable future.

I am not surprised that Brian Cushing held onto the defensive rookie of the year award in the Associated Press’ revote.



The AP reported Cushing got 18 votes, Buffalo safety Jairus Byrd got 13 to finish second and Green Bay linebacker Clay Matthews finished third with 10. Three voters were unable to return ballots and two abstained.



Why did Cushing retain his award after the positive test from September under the league’s policy against performance enhancing drugs?



I agree with this tweet from Stephanie Stradley (@StephStradley) that answers that question:

“Cushing retains DROY bc :1 He was best; 2. Discomfort in speed/change of AP DROY voting rules for just this; 3. No clear 2nd place candidate”

Also, Cushing was eligible to play in all 16 games last season, and the vote is based on what an eligible player did. My problem is as much with the testing/suspending process as the award.



He’ll serve the suspension when he has to. That, and a dented reputation, seem to me to be a just penalty for his violation. Stripping him would have set a new precedent. Some say that would have been a bold, good development. I think it would be complicated and sloppy and still wonder now what circumstances will produce the next revote.



So defensive rookie of the year remains a line on his resume. We’ll also remember that season is connected to the four-game suspension still to come.



One interesting connected note, courtesy of Manish Mehta: Cushing’s USC teammate Mark Sanchez was blown away by the news of the positive test and suspension.

Buffalo Bills safety Jairus Byrd closed the gap, but couldn’t overtake Houston Texans linebacker Brian Cushing in the Associated Press’ revote for defensive rookie of the year.



Cushing won the first time by a count of 39-6, but the AP asked its panel to vote again after it was revealed Cushing violated the league’s policy on performance-enhancing substances.



Despite the revelation, Cushing won again, this time by an 18-13 margin.



Green Bay Packers linebacker Clay Matthews received 10 votes. Washington Redskins defensive end Brian Orakpo received three votes and St. Louis Rams linebacker James Laurinaitis got one.



At the end of the season, I thought Cushing deserved the award because he had a monster season: a team-high 133 tackles, four sacks, 13 tackles for losses, 13 quarterback hits, four interceptions and two forced fumbles.



I hoped Byrd would win the revote. He tied for the NFL lead with nine interceptions despite playing through a sports hernia, didn’t take over as starting strong safety until Week 4 and missed the final two games because he opted for surgery.



But I can understand how voters would stick with Cushing. The NFL implicitly signed off on Cushing when they allowed him to play the entire season after the violation. It also can be reasoned that although he didn’t honestly attain his draft position (15th overall), he compiled his stats while passing tests.



Even so, Byrd deserved the award.

In the weeks since the NFL draft, we’ve taken some big-picture looks at the NFC North. We’ve made a run at naming a preseason division favorite, tried to identify a preseason rookie of the year and examined some faulty assumptions.



Through it all, I’ve struggled to incorporate a gold mine of statistical analysis forwarded by ESPN’s Stats & Information, a series of numbers that help illustrate some of the division’s most notable areas of concern entering the offseason. So with the help of ESPN.com editor Brett Longdin, I want to use some of that information to open a unique window into whether NFC North teams have responsibly shored up their weaknesses over the past months.



Chicago Bears



Issue: The short-yardage running game

Stats & Information revelation: The Bears had the NFL’s worst per-carry average (1.5 yards) on third-and-2 or less last season.

How the Bears responded: Hiring offensive line coach Mike Tice, who brings a power-running sensibility to Mike Martz’s passing offense. Moving left guard Frank Omiyale to right tackle. Signing free agent tailback Chester Taylor.

Seifert analysis: Much of the Bears’ hopes rest on Tice’s shoulders to make over this group; as many as four 2009 starters will remain in their positions. Starting tailback Matt Forte is known more for shiftiness than power, opening an opportunity for Taylor to take over some of those opportunities. But effective power running, especially in short-yardage situations, requires frequency in play calling. Martz isn’t known for his patience in the run game.



Issue: Pass defense in obvious passing situations

Stats & Information revelation: The Bears ranked near the bottom of the NFL when defending against third-and-8 or more.

How the Bears responded: Overhauling their pass rush by signing free-agent defensive end Julius Peppers and jettisoning incumbents Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye (for now). The safety position is also in transition after the re-acquisition of safety Chris Harris and the drafting of Major Wright.

Seifert analysis: That’s about as much personnel change as you’ll see generated in one offseason from an incumbent coaching staff/front office. (Unless you’re in Detroit.) The Peppers acquisition speaks for itself. He’ll cause more havoc than Brown or Ogunleye, and new defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli isn’t expected to be a heavy blitzer. Harris is no world-beater, but even mediocre play would be an improvement. If nothing else, the Bears get an A for effort in addressing this issue.



Detroit Lions



Issue: Explosive running plays, or lack thereof

Stats & Information revelation: The Lions had five running plays of 20 or more yards last season, the second-fewest in the NFL.

How the Lions responded: Trading up to draft Cal tailback Jahvid Best, who runs the 40 in 4.35 seconds and averaged 7.3 yards per carry in his college career.

Seifert analysis: Best was widely considered the most explosive runner in the draft. The Lions did take a step to shore up their offensive line, trading for Seattle guard Rob Sims, but they’re hoping Best will be the kind of player who can make big plays on his own. That would make a huge difference for a team that had to work too hard to score touchdowns last season. The Lions ranked No. 29 in the NFL last season in yards per play (4.6) and tied for No. 27 with 28 total touchdowns. To keep up in their division, they need to be able to score quicker and easier.



Issue: Historically horrible pass defense, especially on downfield throws

Stats & Information revelation: The Lions were the only NFL team to allow opponents better than 50 percent completion percentage on passes that traveled 21 or more yards in the air last season.

How the Lions responded: Overhauling their personnel on the defensive line and secondary. Of the eight combined starters in those two units, at least five will be new. Depending on how competition plays out, safety Louis Delmas might be the only returning starter among the eight.

Seifert analysis: The defensive line is far ahead of the secondary in terms of credibility and potential to impact games. At different points in their careers, defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch and defensive tackle Corey Williams have been dominant pass-rushers relative to their positions. The sky is the limit for defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. The Lions’ pass defense will go as far as their pass rush takes them. It stands to reason they should at least cut down on opponents’ downfield percentage; more pass rush equals less time to let long passes develop. As for coverage, it probably couldn’t be much worse than last season.



Green Bay Packers



Issue: Although it settled in the second half of the season, the Packers’ pass protection allowed NFL-high sack levels.

Stats & Information revelation: The Packers allowed 31 sacks against defensive formations of four or fewer pass-rushers, tied for the league lead. That rate speaks to consistent 1-on-1 defeats.

How the Packers responded: Re-signing both veteran tackles, Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher. Drafting tackle Bryan Bulaga at No. 23 overall.

Seifert analysis: Some might question the wisdom of bringing back a pair of 30-something tackles. But the Packers at least have smoothed out the cliff they started last season on. They have a more reliable safety net should Clifton or Tauscher falter or get injured, and Bulaga promises a solid future at one of the tackle positions. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers also has agreed there are times he should throw the ball quicker. The combination of better depth and Rodgers’ experience should minimize the issues Green Bay suffered through last season.



Issue: Elite quarterbacks scorched the Packers’ pass defense last season.

Stats & Information revelation: Despite disappointing performances against Minnesota, Pittsburgh and — in the playoffs — Arizona, the Packers led the NFL in defense against four-receiver sets.

How the Packers responded: They took only one aggressive step to address their personnel here: Trading up to draft safety Morgan Burnett. Otherwise, they are counting on the healthy return of cornerbacks Al Harris, Will Blackmon, Pat Lee and Brandon Underwood. They also are hoping Brad Jones can provide consistent pass rush as an outside linebacker.

Seifert analysis: Although this statistic is culled from a relatively small sample of the Packers’ defensive plays, it might help explain why they are not as worked up about this situation as some of us are. Like it or not, they have chosen not to overreact to some disappointing games against Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks. They’re trusting their developmental system to give them the personnel reinforcements they need. It should also be re-emphasized that they’ll take on “elite” quarterbacks in only three games this season: Twice against Minnesota’s Brett Favre, assuming he doesn’t retire, and once against New England’s Tom Brady.



Minnesota Vikings



Issue: Minnesota’s running game was less effective in 2009.

Stats & Information revelation: Nearly 27 percent of the Vikings’ rushing attempts went for no gain or a loss, the second-highest rate in the NFL.

How the Vikings responded: Allowing Taylor to depart via free agency. Trading up to draft Toby Gerhart, a 231-pound tailback.

Seifert analysis: The Taylor-Gerhart swap will be secondary to the larger issues Minnesota must address. First, they’ll need more even-handed performances from an offensive line that introduced two new starters in center John Sullivan and right tackle Phil Loadholt. Second, tailback Adrian Peterson must continue his career-long efforts to contain his aggressiveness long enough to allow the hole to develop. It’s an especially important task in a zone-blocking scheme.



Issue: Minnesota nose tackle Pat Williams has flirted with retirement, and both he and teammates Kevin Williams might have to serve a four-game suspension after testing positive for a diuretic.

Stats & Information revelation: Even with Williams’ advancing age, the Vikings’ up-the-gut defense still led the NFL by allowing 3.0 yards per carry last season.

How the Vikings responded: Re-signed backup Jimmy Kennedy and issued a high tender to fellow backup Fred Evans, a restricted free agent.

Seifert analysis: The Vikings are satisfied with their depth at both defensive tackle positions and have long groomed Evans to replace Pat Williams. No matter whom they acquire, there will be a drop-off if their two starters are suspended concurrently. The bigger issue is finding a long-term replacement for Pat Williams. Is Evans the guy? He’ll get his chance to prove it should the suspensions stand.

Should an NFC North rookie replace the suspended Brian Cushing to win the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year award?



Cushing, the Houston linebacker who violated the league’s steroid policy last fall, remains on the ballot for an unprecedented re-vote set to be completed Wednesday. As we noted Monday, Green Bay linebacker Clay Matthews finished third in the original balloting and could benefit from those who withdraw their support from Cushing. After all, only 10 players finished the 2009 season with more than Matthews’ 10 sacks, which was also a Packers rookie record.



But there is another Black and Blue player who deserves to be in the discussion, and I wonder if at least a few voters will take this opportunity to re-focus their views on Detroit safety Louis Delmas.



Delmas didn’t receive a vote in the original balloting, and it’s difficult for anyone to get national recognition while playing for a defense that performed as poorly as the Lions’ last season. But don’t forget that Delmas became the first rookie in NFL history to record a safety as well as fumble and interception returns for touchdowns. His 101-yard return of an interception against Arizona, moreover, was the longest by an NFL rookie since 1926. That’s the definition of a playmaking safety.



We’re really in uncharted territory here. This vote isn’t as simple as re-shuffling the original deck. The balloting usually happens in the final days of the regular season. Delmas’ reputation has grown since then, and whether they admit or not, voters now have an entire offseason’s worth of analysis to work from. They also have the comments of people like Lions coach Jim Schwartz, who in February called Delmas the Lions’ best defensive player.



I don’t think Delmas will win the award, and he might not get a vote. But if nothing else, this instance provides an opportunity to remind everyone of his historic rookie season.

Buffalo Bills safety Jairus Byrd will have another crack at winning the NFL’s defensive rookie of the year award.



The Associated Press, purveyors of the widely accepted version of the award, has decided to allow its voters to recast ballots after the revelation that last year’s winner, Houston Texans linebacker Brian Cushing, violated the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs in September.



Byrd finished second in voting for AP’s defensive rookie award, but Cushing won in a landslide, 39-6. Cushing can win the award again. He will return to the ballot, giving voters the option to vote for him while considering his violation. The league, after all, did allow Cushing to keep playing.



Also on the ballot are Green Bay Packers linebacker Clay Matthews and Washington Redskins defensive end Brian Orakpo.



“This is the first time we’ve encountered an issue like this,” said Lou Ferrara, AP’s managing editor for sports and entertainment. “Because these awards are based on on-field performance, we consider it necessary to review the matter and allow for a re-vote, especially after concerns were raised by many of our voters.”



Cushing’s transgression came to light last week. The NFL suspended him for the first four games of the upcoming season, and Cushing’s appeal was denied last week.

As we’ve been discussing for much of the day, the Associated Press has called a re-vote for its NFC Defensive Rookie of the Year award following the four-game suspension of the original winner, Houston linebacker Brian Cushing.



I just spoke with one of the voters, and he confirmed Cushing’s name remains on the ballot. I like that the AP didn’t rule out Cushing as a possibility for those who don’t want to apply retroactive revelations to the voting. But I think it’s fair to say this move opens up the possibility that Green Bay linebacker Clay Matthews will win the award. Other candidates include Buffalo safety Jairus Byrd, who finished second in the original vote, and Washington linebacker Brian Orakpo, who finished fourth.



Earlier today, longtime AP writer Dave Goldberg said it would be unprecedented for the AP to call a re-vote. Votes are due back Wednesday at noon. We’ll keep you updated.

Take a look at the background picture of Green Bay linebacker Clay Matthews’ Twitter account. It’s a 2009 Sports Illustrated cover featuring Matthews and two of his former USC teammates: Brian Cushing, later drafted by Houston, and Rey Maualuga, who landed in Cincinnati.



Barely a year later, Matthews is the only one of the trio unscathed by controversy. Maualuga was arrested in January for drunken driving and was scheduled to spend 30 days in rehab. Cushing, the 2009 NFL defensive rookie of the year for Houston, was suspended four games Friday after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs.



And for those who will start the guilty-by-association discussion between Cushing and Matthews, who gained some 60 pounds between his junior year in high school and the start of his college career, let’s follow the lead of Greg A. Bedard of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.



Bedard points out Matthews’ April 2009 response to rumors he had tested positive for steroids himself. Matthews explained how he developed from an unrecruited 161-pound high school junior to a 220-pound college linebacker and expressed frustration at how quickly steroid rumors start when young football players gain weight.



Let’s allow Matthews’ unambiguous words, courtesy the Packers’ website, speak mostly for themselves.

Clay, were you part of an erroneous report?

Clay Matthews: Yeah, the same website actually reported that B.J. [Raji] had tested positive for recreational drugs and me and my other teammate, Brian Cushing, had tested positive for steroids, which is completely false. Unfortunately in years past people have had to just wait it out and let the smoke clear and at that time their name is damaged. No matter if you come out clean, people are going to think less of you as a person. So [we] were fortunate enough to be able to call the head administrator for the drug test and he let us know, no, you didn’t test positive. It was just a matter of shutting a guy down and letting people know the real story. It’s unfortunate, but I guess we’re in this position that we are today and it wouldn’t be happening if we weren’t in this position. You learn from it and you grow from it really.

When you went to SC, were you 161 pounds?

CM: No, that weight has been exaggerated tremendously. I want to set the record straight and say I was 228 coming into SC. After camp, around 220. I just worked hard. I’d love for the writer of that article to come see how I train and live a day in my shoes, and he can see how I put on this weight and what not. It was funny, I just heard the other day Aaron Curry was 195 at Wake Forest when he first checked in. People can put on weight. They work hard. It’s not that hard provided you have a workman’s mentality.

You redshirted and were there a long time, so was it not just the weight room but you hit some growth spurts there too?

CM: Yeah, absolutely. Fortunately and I guess unfortunately, Matthews are just late bloomers. The same with my dad and my Uncle Bruce, we all going into college, we put on a tremendous amount of weight. It was just a little late in the recruiting process so you have to walk on here and there and make a name for yourself. That’s what I had to do. You can talk to anyone at that program and they’ll say I’m one of the hardest workers and I’m going to be in the weight room. Not just in the weight room, but on the practice field, watching film, game film, and they’ll tell you the type of character that I possess.

So what did you weigh your junior year when they wouldn’t recruit you?

CM: 166.

How tall were you?

CM: Probably around 6-foot, 6-1. Probably the only college guy to have actually grown in height too throughout college.

Some of you will suggest that we in the media perpetuate guilt-by-association themes by introducing them in the first place. Writing about it draws a connection readers might not otherwise make, you might say, and extends the damage rather than letting the issue settle.



I strongly disagree. I covered baseball from 1996-99, the years leading up to the steroid revelation era. At the time, writers bent over backward to avoid mentioning steroids, even in the presence of obvious clues, in order to avoid sullying the reputation of players who hadn’t admitted to using them. And since there was no reliable testing at the time, no one admitted it. So for the most part, steroids were not part of the public discussion even though, as we now know, they were being used by some of the best players in the game.



Nowhere am I suggesting that Matthews should come under more scrutiny now that one of his college teammates has tested positive. But we would be naïve to think that ignoring the connection would help diminish its legitimacy. Every American with a computer can publish his or her opinion via the Internet. So in an era of unattributable accusations and connecting of the dots, we need more openness, more public discussion and maximum accountability. I’d rather have someone like Clay Matthews step forward and assert he has never taken steroids than sit back and believe rumors will dissipate if they go unaddressed.

While hashing through the demise of Oakland quarterback JaMarcus Russell, AFC West colleague Bill Williamson revisited the first round of the 2007 draft. Perhaps this is always the case three years later, but I was struck at the disparate impact that draft had on the NFC North.



Two teams drafted the player now considered the best on their roster. Another team totally whiffed. And a fourth has put its first-rounder into a transition phase of his career.



Take a look at the chart below. Detroit drafted receiver Calvin Johnson and Minnesota gobbled up tailback Adrian Peterson. Green Bay, meanwhile, has gotten 13 games, 28 tackles and no sacks from oft-injured defensive lineman Justin Harrell. Chicago had tight end Greg Olsen on an ascending ladder until shifting to an offense this year that will require more blocking than he is used to.



Wow. I think I just decided that the draft is a crapshoot. Take that to the house.

This week’s Have at It might not have drawn a clear distinction between candidates for league-wide Rookie of the Year awards and the topic we were focused on: Your nomination for the best rookie in the NFC North for 2010.



We had two national contenders last season in Minnesota receiver Percy Harvin and Green Bay linebacker Clay Matthews, and I agree it’s going to be difficult to match that number this year. But by rule, one of our rookies will play better than the rest of his divisional competitors, and that’s what I want to concentrate on.



Much of the debate centered around Detroit’s pair of first-round draft picks, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and running back Jahvid Best. The general consensus was that it might be difficult to gauge Suh’s success from a statistical perspective, which will make it harder to judge his impact. “D-linemen generally take a year to get up to speed, and even if Suh is great, he’s not likely to be a sack machine,” wrote EveryoneNeedsASmile. (And yes, everyone does.)



Ranial_Cheddar doesn’t trust Best to stay healthy for 16 games, given his frightening concussion last year, but Liqourish wants us to avoid overthinking the obvious:

I think Jahvid Best has the best chance. Jahvid will be the Lions’ featured back right out of the gate. Jim Schwartz has talked about using Jahvid in a variety of ways in the offense. All RBs need to do is have a lot of all-purpose yards and they are among the top candidates. If Best is used enough, it should be his for the taking.

More people talked up Minnesota’s Toby Gerhart than I anticipated. Cmwernick320 envisions a high ceiling for success in the Vikings’ established offense:

He’s in the best position to have the most success and have a role-defined impact for the Vikings. The fact that he’s entering an environment that has already produced two ROY’s in the last three years says a lot about the doors this team can open for him.

Nabicus, meanwhile, believes the fumble problems of Vikings starter Adrian Peterson will allow Gerhart to “steal goal-line carries and score 10 TD’s this year.” Peterson had 18 rushing touchdowns in 2009.



Finally, I saw a few too many pleas for Minnesota’s sixth-round pick, Joe Webb. Stringer1211 thinks Webb “will make an impact at WR/RB/Wildcat QB,” and a number of you agreed.



I don’t want to dash anyone’s hopes, but let’s consider the reality of what he’s attempting: A transition from quarterback to receiver on the pro level. If body type and jumping ability were the only attributes necessary for success, we would have a much bigger pool from which to choose NFL receivers. Webb has some definite tools, but I think we need to tone down the excitement for a bit.



My take? First, let’s assume everyone gets into training camp relatively on time and without any kind of contract dispute that impacts conditioning or preparation. If that’s the case, I believe Suh is going to be the best rookie player in the NFC North this season. I’m not sure if we will have a statistical basis for that claim, but we don’t need 1,000 yards or 10 touchdowns or eight interceptions to bestow our version of this award.



I’m not down on Best at all and believe he will lead the Lions in rushing. But the value Suh brings, even if it’s not double-digit sacks, will be far-reaching for Detroit’s weakest area of 2009. We discussed those attributes last month during the draft, but in short I think Suh will be a player opponents will have to account for — and ultimately avoid — on every play. That will help the rest of the Lions’ defensive line, along with their linebackers and defensive backs as well.