A coin toss is no way to settle any NFL game, let alone a classic playoff battle or, worse, the Super Bowl.



ESPN’s John Clayton and I can agree on that.



The prospect of Peyton Manning, Drew Brees or any elite quarterback never touching the football during overtime keeps league executives awake at night, or at least during meetings of the competition committee. There’s a decent chance those meetings will produce changes to overtime rules for the playoffs, a subject Clayton and I will try to resolve in regulation.



Mike Sando: Greetings, professor, and welcome to the NFC West blog. Aren’t you on the competition committee?



John Clayton: Not quite, Mike, but if I were, I’d be inclined to vote for change. The current overtime rules are fine for the regular season. Why have a cheap overtime victory in the playoffs?



MS: This might be a good time to formally introduce the proposed rules change. Both teams would get at least one possession in overtime unless one team scored a touchdown on the first possession. This would prevent a team from moving quickly into range for the winning field goal before the other team had a chance to get its offense on the field. And I get that part of it. No one wants to see kickers trump quarterbacks. But let’s also not forget about the first four quarters. Both quarterbacks have plenty of chances to win games during regulation. Let’s not tinker with rules lightly.



JC: What I like is it’s only going to be in the playoffs. Since 2002, there have been five times in the playoffs in which a quarterback turned the overtime coin toss into a victory. Quarterbacks are getting very good at taking drives down the field in two-minute situations. It’s becoming more frequent. It happened only once from 1958 until 2002.



MS: Right, but the new rule wouldn’t have affected all of those games. Peyton Manning never touched the football in overtime of the Colts’ wild-card playoff defeat at San Diego a year ago. His team scored 17 points in regulation, took a knee on the final play and then watched San Diego put together a 10-play, 75-yard drive to the winning touchdown. The right team won that game and the right team wins most of them. I can’t remember feeling shortchanged after watching a kicker win a playoff game in overtime. I’m also not a big fan of having different rules for the playoffs. Football should be football, right?



JC: Sudden death would turn into sudden deferral if the league applied this proposed rule to the regular season. At least in playoff games, you’re always trying to win.



MS: We’ve gone from 15 ties per season from 1962 to 1973 to less than one tie per season over the last 36. That’s a good thing.



JC: The current rule was put together in 1974 to stop ties, and it worked. That is the function of these rules. It minimizes the chance for ties. At least when you get into the playoffs, there are no ties. They will play until somebody scores. And then it starts to make sense to take advantage of a chance to have a second possession, the chance to neutralize a field goal. Why have a cheap overtime victory in the playoffs as opposed to one where you earn it? In the regular season, if you go to a mandatory two possessions in OT, now all of a sudden you’re eating 8 minutes off the clock and there’s a better chance for a tie because there’s no second OT.



MS: I’m not feeling much urgency on this one. There’s too much emphasis on everything having to be perfectly fair. The current rules aren’t perfect, but this is football, not the legal system. I didn’t have a problem with Brett Favre never touching the ball in overtime against the Saints in the NFC Championship Game. The Vikings botched the end of regulation and deserved to lose and we all know what happened the last time Favre had possession in a playoff game. He threw it to the other team.



Winning or losing by a field goal is part of football. There’s nothing cheap about a kicker coming through in the clutch and getting mobbed by his teammates. Those kicks aren’t gimmes under pressure, as kickers demonstrated last postseason. They’re dramatic precisely because the game’s outcome hangs in the balance. I also think it’s vital for the league to consider unintended consequences for any rule change. More on that in a bit. Before we go any further, what are the odds of this rules change even passing when owners get together in Orlando for their spring meetings later this month?



JC: I would give it only about a 45 percent chance even though it’s a good proposal. The main problem for passage is that there are a lot of traditionalists in the NFL — the Bidwills in Arizona, Mike Brown in Cincinnati. They are typically going to say no because they don’t like change. There has always been a block that was against replay and a block against rules such as this one. But that 45 percent chance is the best chance for an overtime rules change in many years.



MS: Let’s say the new rule passes and the allegedly great threat of cheap overtime field goals in the postseason is ended. The final minutes of regulation in a tie game might feel a little different. I wonder if teams might be more inclined to play for overtime, perhaps lowering the stakes in regulation. We should also consider how games might change after one team scores a field goal on the first possession of overtime. The second team would never punt, but there might be less drama in the knowledge that an answering field goal would buy additional time.



JC: As you know, Mike, I think one of the great parts of the game now is how the elite quarterbacks work the two-minute offense. The beauty of this rule change is that I don’t think it’s going to change it too much. Because of the possibility of a team losing the coin toss and giving up a touchdown drive that might lose the game, I think the quarterbacks will still drive for the winning score in regulation rather than just settle for overtime. That would be different in the regular season. Teams without elite quarterbacks would turn defensive and just settle for the overtime game. In the playoffs nowadays, you have to have an elite quarterback. You’re only talking about one or two playoff games a year in overtime. I’m not concerned as much about watching the punter. I’m concerned about seeing the elite quarterback. This rule change should pass because it doesn’t dampen the excitement of a playoff game. That might happen if you just go to the two-possession rule. The touchdown factor for the first possession puts this one over the top.



MS: We’re out of time, which can only mean one thing. Let’s flip a coin and settle this thing. Where’s Phil Luckett when you need him?

We have been tracking guaranteed money on this blog ever since Detroit committed quarterback Matthew Stafford to an NFL-record $41.7 million on the eve of the 2009 draft. Finally, it’s time for Stafford’s deal to take a back seat.



But as it turns out, the record remains in the NFC North family. (Would you have expected anything else?) Chicago guaranteed defensive end Julius Peppers $42 million on Friday, putting Peppers at the top of our list:



Chicago defensive end Julius Peppers: $42 million

Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford: $41.7 million

Washington defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth: $41 million

San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers: $38 million

Atlanta quarterback Michael Vick: $37 million*

Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger: $36 million

New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning: $35 million

Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan: $34.8 million

Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning: $34.5 million

Oakland quarterback JaMarcus Russell: $31.5 million

Dallas quarterback Tony Romo: $30 million

*Vick’s deal has since been terminated.



It will be interesting to see how long Peppers’ record stands. If a quarterback is drafted No. 1 overall next month, you would think his guaranteed money would overtake Stafford. With only a $300,000 difference between Stafford and Peppers, there is a chance the record could soon fall. Other candidates include Manning and New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, both of whom are expected to receive contract extensions this offseason.

Evading a question is one thing. Issuing a flat denial is another.



So, if the Rams quickly move for Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb when the trading period opens at midnight ET, I’d be a little surprised.

McNabb

Bradford

“There’s been no talks about Donovan,” Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo told Sirius radio’s Scott Ferrall on Wednesday night.



Pressed further, Spagnuolo said, “No, there were no conversations.”



Separately, Rams vice president Kevin Demoff used an NFL.com chat to explain how difficult it can be to draft good quarterbacks after the first round — something to keep in mind as the Rams decide whether to draft Sam Bradford first overall.



“One thing that should be noted is the success rate of quarterbacks drafted in the second round is far worse than that of those drafted in the first round,” Demoff wrote. “The only second-round quarterback to make the Pro Bowl in recent memory was Drew Brees, and he would have been a first-rounder if there had been 32 teams in the NFL when he was drafted.”



Kordell Stewart (1995 draft) and Jake Plummer (1997) went to Pro Bowls as second-round choices, although neither enjoyed exceptional careers by elite quarterback standards.



“I believe at the end of the year, 18 of the 32 quarterbacks starting in the NFL were first-round picks, and the next most prolific round was undrafted,” Demoff wrote. “If you look at the playoffs last year, nearly all of the starting quarterbacks were first-rounders, with the exception of Brees, Brady and Warner, who all could be in the Hall of Fame. The percentages are much better in the first round, but with the reward comes great risk.”



From 1996 to 2006, about 41 percent of first-round quarterbacks became Pro Bowl players. The rate dropped to 22 percent in the second round, 13 percent in the third round, 6.7 percent in the fourth round and zero percent in the fifth and seventh rounds. Nearly 17 percent of sixth-rounders became Pro Bowlers (Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, Marc Bulger and Derek Anderson).



I did not count quarterbacks drafted from 2007 forward, figuring they were still early in their careers. Also, quarterbacks drafted earlier probably received extra chances to succeed.

Florida quarterback Tim Tebow is working to refine his throwing motion. Will he play QB or some other position in the NFL? Let’s assess his chances of landing in the NFC South.



Atlanta: Unless Tebow wanted to switch positions and the Falcons thought he could play tight end or somewhere else, there’s no chance of him landing in Atlanta. They’ve got Matt Ryan as their franchise quarterback. Coach Mike Smith and offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey aren’t big believers in gimmicks. They rarely use the Wildcat formation and they’re not going to change and disrupt their offense.



Draft probability: No chance.



Carolina: The Panthers probably are in the market for a quarterback in free agency or the draft. At the moment, they have an uncertain situation with Matt Moore and Jake Delhomme as the only real options to start. Tebow has a history as a winner, and the Panthers have done their homework on him. But coach John Fox and general manager Marty Hurney have to win big this year, and they’ve always believed it takes too long for a quarterback to develop from the time he’s drafted. Tebow is just adjusting to an NFL throwing motion. It’s very unlikely Fox and Hurney will take him because they don’t have the time for him to develop.



Draft probability: Low.



New Orleans: Yeah, it’s tempting to think about the possibilities of what a great offensive mind like Sean Payton could do with Tebow. But do you really think Payton is going to do anything that potentially would take the ball out of Drew Brees’ hands?



Draft probability: No chance.



Tampa Bay: The Bucs have young quarterbacks in Josh Freeman and Josh Johnson. Freeman clearly is the franchise guy. If the Bucs do anything at quarterback, it will be to add a veteran free agent to help mentor Freeman. They have 10 draft picks and lots of needs. A project at quarterback isn’t one of them.



Draft probability: No chance

Now that future Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson has been released by the San Diego Chargers, it will be interesting to see where he lands. Tomlinson told SI.com’s Jim Trotter that his main goal is to join a contender. And most contenders generally have one thing in common.

“I do know that I would have to go to a team that has a [proven] quarterback,” Tomlinson said. “A place where you know you have a chance to win because of the quarterback.”

Trotter mentioned the Eagles, Patriots and Packers as potential fits for Tomlinson. If the Eagles signed Tomlinson, they’d likely release veteran Brian Westbrook. The two running backs are both in their early 30s and they’ve seen steep declines in their numbers. Would Tomlinson be that much of an upgrade over Westbrook at this point? I don’t think so. And that’s why the Eagles will probably steer clear of him.



The other team in the NFC East that might have some interest in Tomlinson is Washington. Coach Mike Shanahan has a great appreciation for Tomlinson because he coached in the same division for so many years. The Redskins are still trying to figure out what to do at quarterback and running back, though, which might make them less appealing to the former Chargers great.



Still, you could make the argument that Shanahan’s presence alone will quickly turn the Redskins into a contender. And Tomlinson might not have as many options as one might think. I’m sure he’d love to reunite with Drew Brees in New Orleans, but that’s also unlikely. The Patriots have made a living on signing players in the twilight of their careers, so that’s a definite possibility.



But don’t rule out the Houston Texans. After all, Ryan Moats was starting (and succeeding) at one point in ‘09. Gary Kubiak also has a great appreciation for LT from his time in the AFC West. Where do you guys think Tomlinson will land?

Let’s catch up on some numbers as the fallout of the Chargers’ release of running back LaDainian Tomlinson continues.



The following are some lists compiled by ESPN Stats & Information. These illustrate just how dominant and special Tomlinson was in his nine-season career in San Diego:



LaDainian Tomlinson, NFL Career Rank

Rush Yards: 12,490 (8th)

Rush TD: 138 (2nd)

Total TD: 153 (3rd)

Most Rush TD, NFL History

Emmitt Smith: 164

LaDainian Tomlinson: 138

Marcus Allen: 123

Walter Payton: 110

Jim Brown: 106

Most Total TD, NFL History

Jerry Rice: 208

Emmitt Smith: 175

LaDainian Tomlinson: 153

Randy Moss: 149

Terrell Owens: 147

Most Career Rush Yards (Spent Entire Career With One Team)

Walter Payton: 16,726 (Bears)

Barry Sanders: 15,269 (Lions)

LaDainian Tomlinson: 12,490 (Chargers)

Jim Brown: 12,312 (Browns)

Meanwhile, Tomlinson tells Sports Illustrated that he is still motivated to play and that he wants to play for a championship-caliber team. It wouldn’t be a shock if Tomlinson’s top choice would be to reunite with close friend and former teammate Drew Brees with the Super Bowl champion Saints.



Here are a collection of several radio interviews with key people in Tomlinson’s San Diego career.

The earlier item showing where teams target positions among the first 32 draft choices raised questions about quarterbacks in particular.



Fourteen of the 37 quarterbacks drafted in that range since 1995 went first or third overall. None went in 15 of the 32 highest spots, including 13th through 16th or 27th through 31st.



“The interesting point on second-round QB picks will be who they were, how long until they were a starter (if ever) and if they stuck with their drafting team,” Bcook122 wrote in response. “I’m hoping this year’s crop may yield a good prospect without having to exact one of those two first-round picks the Niners have.”



The first thing I did was break out all second-round quarterbacks selected in the last 30 drafts, figuring this would provide big-picture perspective. One of the quarterbacks in question, Drew Brees, appeared on the previous list because the Chargers selected him 32nd overall before the NFL expanded to 32 teams. Some of the best ones — Boomer Esiason, Randall Cunningham and Neil Lomax — were drafted between 1981 and 1984. Another, Brett Favre, went in 1991.



The next step involved narrowing the search range to all drafts since 1995.



NFL teams have drafted 17 second-round quarterbacks during that period, including Brees. The Dolphins (three) and Lions (two) drafted five of the 17, including four since 2007. Eight of the 17 were drafted since 2006. Three of the 17 have gone to Pro Bowls, but Brees is the only one with a career passer rating higher than 77.9.



The chart ranks these 17 quarterbacks by regular-season games played. Of course, the earlier a quarterback is drafted, the more chances an organization will generally give him.

US PresswireAre Tom Brady and the Patriots on the fall, and Mark Sanchez and the Jets on the rise?

We’re in that long, desolate period when meaningful football looks like a tiny dot on the horizon. Without a shot at redemption for the next seven months, fans of 31 teams must deal with the fact they’re losers.



This is the long wait until next year. Or in the case of most teams, the year after that and the year after that and the year after that.



The only folks not in a rush for the 2010 season to begin are in New Orleans. But when they sober up sometime around Bastille Day, they’ll be ready to get after it again.



Even Buffalo Bills fans, who haven’t seen their team in the playoffs for a full decade, find enough reasons to return to the box office every offseason and fill Ralph Wilson Stadium.



Hope and the pursuit of glory are powerful stimulants.



With that in mind, let’s cast our gaze forward in the AFC East and consider which team will experience the next big payoff.



Who from the AFC East will return to the Super Bowl first?



The New England Patriots have been the default favorite for many years, and they might remain the safest pick.

Jim Rogash/Getty ImagesWith coaches Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan at the helm, the Patriots and Jets will always be competitive.

But there’s a growing belief the Patriots better do it quickly. The New York Jets came within 30 minutes of making it this year and appear to have the kind of roster that sets them up for many years to come.



“The Patriots would be a good guess,” said former Bills special-teams star Steve Tasker, an analyst for CBS Sports. “But the Patriots have a lot further to go. The Jets are stronger.”



A sampling of accomplished former AFC East players who still follow the game closely raised many recurring sentiments:

• The Jets at least have pulled even with the Patriots.
• The Patriots are getting older and have more roster concerns.
• If quarterback Mark Sanchez can develop, the Jets will be the team to beat for a long time.
• The Miami Dolphins are on the rise but still trail the Jets and Patriots.
• The Bills are a mess and don’t belong in the conversation until they show significant improvements on the field.

ESPN analyst Herm Edwards, a former Jets and Kansas City Chiefs head coach, already has picked the Jets to represent the AFC in next year’s Super Bowl.



“The Patriots are closer to getting back to the Super Bowl, but the better long-term future would be the Jets,” said Steve DeOssie, who spent a dozen years in the NFL and hosts a Patriots postgame show on Boston sports radio station WEEI.



“That window of opportunity is closing for the Patriots in two, three maybe four years on the outside. If Sanchez develops, the Jets have a very bright future for the next seven, eight, nine years.”



Sanchez has emerged as perhaps the central figure in the entire division. His progress will influence the direction of more than the Jets.



Sanchez endured a turbulent rookie campaign in which he threw 12 touchdowns and 20 interceptions in the regular season. But the Jets dialed him back down the home stretch. He played well enough to get them into the AFC Championship Game, where they held a lead over the Indianapolis Colts in the third quarter.



“At worst case, the Jets have pulled neck and neck with the Patriots,” said former Dolphins linebacker Kim Bokamper, sports anchor of Miami’s CBS affiliate. “The thing that keeps me from going ahead and saying [the Jets have overtaken the Patriots] is what to make of Mark Sanchez. You’ve seen the good and the bad with him. It’s hard to give the free pass on him being the next guy.”



The Jets have so much going for them: a fearsome defense, an extraordinary offensive line, a relentless running game. They feature an envious number of stars with many years ahead.



Tasker noted the offense should get better with some help at receiver and stressed how remarkable it was the Jets’ defense remained dominant without studly nose tackle Kris Jenkins, who will be back.



“Sanchez played well in that championship game, but as we saw with Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan, every year’s different,” Tasker said. “When you start giving these guys more and more things to worry about and more and responsibility, sometimes these guys take a step backward. That doesn’t mean I think Sanchez is going to flop, but I don’t think a great, big, giant step forward this offseason is something that can be assumed.”



If Sanchez merely utilizes the assets around him, then the Jets should be fine. If he can mature into a bona fide franchise quarterback, then the Jets will be dangerous.



“He doesn’t have to be in the neighborhood of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, but if Sanchez can get into that second tier of quarterbacks, that would be enough,” said DeOssie, who won a Super Bowl with the New York Giants before playing with the Jets and Patriots.



“He has to be able to, at given times, put the team on his shoulders and win a game. But if he develops into a competent or slightly better than average quarterback, the Jets easily have the inside track.”



To take the next step, the Jets’ offense needs to drift away from such a domineering run game and attain something that resembles balance. The Jets need to augment their pass attack to be able to win a game when they trail by a couple scores.



The deeper into the playoffs a team goes, the more likely an opponent will be able to put points on the board in a hurry. The Saints were only the second team in Super Bowl history to come back from 10 points down and win.



The Patriots finished their season with a clunker performance. The Baltimore Ravens went into Gillette Stadium and annihilated New England in the first round of the playoffs.



When discussing New England’s future, there are more questions than there’ve been in years.



“We’re starting to see their age,” Bokamper said.



Seemingly out of habit, though, analysts still mention Bill Belichick and Brady like they’re shamans who can cure whatever ails the organization.



The Patriots crave pass-rushing help. They might need cornerbacks. Brady’s best friend on the field, Wes Welker, is coming off a serious knee injury.



“It’ll be a big question if Wes Welker can come back and have a good season,” Tasker said. “Randy Moss seems to be on the backside of his career.



“That said, it doesn’t mean Bill Belichick won’t figure something out, and Tom Brady makes everybody better.”

The champs have been crowned. Thirty-one other teams now head toward March 5 when free agency begins and the 2010 league year begins.



In the copycat NFL, everyone is already wondering how they match up to the New Orleans Saints.



Not everyone will toss their formulas and look to install the Saints’ systems. But it makes sense to look at how the Saints got where they are and set off “Lombardi Gras.”



And so here’s a look at the AFC South and how its teams stack up against New Orleans. (AFC South teams won’t be playing the Saints during the 2010 regular season; they’ve drawn the NFC East for next season.)



Houston Texans



The Saints are built around quarterback Drew Brees and the Texans feel they’ve got a Super Bowl-caliber signal-caller of a similar ilk in Matt Schaub. Like Brees, Schaub is accurate and capable of posting some serious numbers — he actually threw for 382 more yards than Brees did in the regular season. But Schaub had to throw more because he didn’t have a run game to match the one Brees worked with.



The Texans didn’t need to see the Saints’ path to the title to know their run game is insufficient. Coach Gary Kubiak re-emphasized Wednesday that his team will be committed to the run. That means finding a guy who can take a good share of the carries and work in some sort of tandem with Steve Slaton is priority one on offense.



A defense that can make big plays can supplement that sort of offense. The Texans have defensive playmakers in Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Brian Cushing and Bernard Pollard. But they don’t have a guy like Darren Sharper, and free safety is clearly a spot Houston needs to improve to be championship-ready.



The big stat: The Saints averaged 39.4 yards per game and a full yard per carry more on the ground than the Texans in 2009.



Indianapolis Colts



We don’t need to say much here, as we just saw how the Colts measure up to the Saints in Super Bowl XLIV. Their offensive line and special teams didn’t match up well. They’ve allowed special teams to be an issue for too long, and need to look to upgrade those units. They can win with a less-that-fantastic run game. But when the Colts need that vital rushing yard, the line needs to deliver the blocking more consistently.



The big stat: While New Orleans led the league in average total yards per game (403.8) and Indianapolis ranked ninth (363.1) in that stat, the Saints were far more balanced (sixth in rush yards a game, fourth in pass yards) than the Colts (32nd and second).



Jacksonville Jaguars



It wasn’t only the Saints. Three out of the NFL’s final four teams got there largely because an elite quarterback led them there. David Garrard doesn’t fit the bill. I’m one of any number of commentators or analysts who don’t believe he does, and his coach Jack Del Rio has said it as well. I expect the Jaguars will be looking to upgrade the spot in the draft.



Jacksonville is not going to be built in the Saints’ mold, as it looks to prove a defensive, run-oriented team can grind away and knock off teams like New Orleans. But to be that sort of team at a playoff level, the Jaguars need to find a way to beat division-rival Indianapolis with some regularity. That means winning without an elite quarterback against an elite quarterback.



While we can debate the way to throw Peyton Manning off his game — blitz and look for ways to hurry him or complicate the coverages — we know the Jaguars don’t yet have the personnel to do either well enough. The pass rush will be as big an offseason issue for the Jaguars as anything.



The big stat: No matter how much the Jags want to run the ball, they need to score more. New Orleans outscored Jacksonville by a 510-290 margin over the regular season. That’s nearly two touchdowns a game.



Tennessee Titans



Stylistically, the Titans are going to be more like the Jaguars than the Texans or Colts, though Chris Johnson gives them a dynamic player who can match anyone’s most explosive option on offense. They won’t build to try to mirror the Saints’ mold; they will build intending to be ready to shatter the Saints’ mold.



To do so, they’ll need to rush the passer better and play stickier coverage — keys to beating elite quarterbacks. The Saints beat Eli Manning, Tom Brady and Tony Romo in the regular season before knocking off Kurt Warner, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning in the playoffs. Tennessee lost to Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers, lost twice to Peyton Manning and split against Matt Schaub.



If Vince Young emerges as an elite quarterback, he’ll still be of a vastly different style than Brees. He had one receiver who averaged better than 13.7 yards a catch in 2009 while the Saints had three who were at 15.3 yards a catch or better.



The big stat: The 2009 Titans surrendered 31 passing touchdowns compared to the Saints’ 15.

MIAMI — You’re going to hear a lot about Sean Payton being a gambler in the coming days. Don’t believe a bit of it.



A gambler is someone who is taking a 50-50 (or less) shot. Payton is not that dicey. He’ll only get risky when he’s convinced the odds are slanted heavily in his favor. So how the heck do you explain Payton’s choice to have a rookie punter try an onside kick to start the second half of the first Super Bowl in franchise history?



Throw in the fact you’re playing the mighty Indianapolis Colts and the even mightier Peyton Manning and the odds of such a play working couldn’t have been more than what? 10 or 20 percent? Tops?



“We felt during the week it was more than a 60 or 70 percent chance,” Payton said. “We felt not [just] good, we felt real good.”



That play, more than anything else that happened Sunday night, is going to symbolize how the New Orleans Saints defeated the Indianapolis Colts 31-17 in Super Bowl XLIV at Sun Life Stadium. Throw in Payton’s decision to challenge a two-point conversion that initially was ruled a failed attempt and a choice to let kicker Garrett Hartley, who is only slightly more than a rookie, kick a 47-yard field goal near the end of the third quarter and you’ve got a lot of big chances.



Enough to subject a coach to months, maybe years, of second guessing if he doesn’t hit on most of them. If you want to get technical, Payton was three out of four on big chances. He also gambled on a fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line when he called a run by Pierre Thomas instead of passing or kicking a field goal near the end of the first half.



Thomas was stopped short of the goal line, but that was the only gamble Payton missed on all night and it turned out that it didn’t really cost him anything. His defense, which was built on gambling, bailed him out and the Saints got the ball back in time for Hartley to hit a 44-yard field goal as the second quarter ended and cut Indianapolis’ lead to 10-6.



That set the stage for the decision that changed the fate of the entire hard-luck New Orleans region and will live forever in Super Bowl lore. In the locker room, Payton told his team he was going to pull one of the biggest surprises in Super Bowl history.



Shock the world, but not the Saints. Not if you really know what Sean Payton’s all about. He’ll take some chances, but only when he knows there’s a decent shot they’ll work.



“Everyone knows that Sean Payton plays hard and aggressively,” New Orleans offensive tackle Jon Stinchcomb said. “He plays to win the game.”



“That gives us confidence when he does something like that because it shows us how much confidence he has in us,’” linebacker Scott Fujita said.



It gives some of the Saints confidence, but Payton’s dare was something the Colts and the rest of the world didn’t see coming. And, remember, I said only some of the Saints.



Payton told Thomas Morstead, who had been practicing onside kicks for all of 10 days, that he’d be doing it to open the second half.



“For 20 minutes, I sat at my locker terrified,” said Morstead, who handled only punting duties in college. “Not worried, terrified.”



Morstead said he came out of the locker room and worked on his punting as the teams warmed up for the second half. He got so caught up in the bluff that he almost forgot to practice kickoffs. He squeezed one in right before it was time to do the real thing.



“I showed them the same thing I’d done on every kickoff all season long — deep and to the right hash,” Morstead said. “That’s all anybody’s seen out of me.”



Well, anybody who wasn’t at a Saints practice the last 10 days. What Morstead did next was try to make sure he kicked the ball at least 10 yards and put some backspin on it. That’s exactly what happened. After a scramble, New Orleans safety Chris Reis was ruled to have recovered the ball.



“What we were trying to do was create another series [for the offense],” Payton said.



Another series in which the Saints scored the first Super Bowl touchdown in franchise history on a 16-yard pass from Drew Brees to Pierre Thomas. And a series less for Manning and the Indianapolis offense to work the magic they had all season, but didn’t really have Sunday night.



Yeah, the Colts came right back down the field and scored a touchdown to take a 17-13 lead, but the damage had been done and the tone for the rest of the game had been set by the onside kick. Payton followed that gamble by taking another, letting Hartley kick a 47-yard field goal to cut the deficit to a single point.



What you need to know here is that Payton took a gamble on his field goal kickers earlier this season. With Hartley suspended for the first four games of the season for testing positive for a banned dietary supplement, the Saints signed veteran John Carney. He kicked very well and the Saints stayed with Carney long after Hartley’s suspension was over.



The dilemma was the Carney was dependable, but didn’t have a very strong leg. Hartley continued to kick well in practice. Late in the season, Payton elected to release Carney and make him a “kicking consultant” and let Hartley handle the kicking. Could Carney have made the 47-yarder?



Maybe, but the odds were probably less than Payton’s magical 60 to 70 percent. Hartley made it with ease.



Speaking of chances, Payton took his last big one after Brees hit Jeremy Shockey with a 2-yard touchdown pass to give the Saints a 22-17 lead with 5:42 remaining. Instead of leaving Manning with enough time to beat him with a touchdown, Payton chose to go for the two-point conversion.



At first, Brees’ pass to Lance Moore was ruled incomplete. But Payton, with help from assistant coaches who had seen the replay, challenged the call. The play was overturned and the Saints were given two points.



The gambling didn’t really stop there, but that’s only because it started so long ago. You want to know what Payton’s biggest gamble of all was?



Forget about taking the New Orleans job just after Hurricane Katrina because it was a chance for Payton to move up. And forget about the signing of Brees soon after — yes, there were questions about his surgically-repaired shoulder, but there had been evidence before that he could play.



Payton’s real leap came after last season when it became painfully obvious he had a great offense, but absolutely no defense. He fired defensive coordinator Gary Gibbs and got Gregg Williams. Once upon a time, Williams had a reputation as a great defensive mind. That got sullied during stints as a head coach in Buffalo and as a coordinator in Washington and Jacksonville. There were also whispers about how Williams could be a bit of a self-promoter and more style than substance.



Payton threw out $250,000 of his own salary to make sure the Saints got Williams. It turned out to be the best bet he ever made.



Williams came in the door preaching aggressive defense. It worked nicely at the start of the season, but seemed to fizzle around midseason when the Saints ran into some injury problems. The Saints got healthier as the playoffs came and played good defense in victories against Arizona and Minnesota.



But Manning wasn’t supposed to be like Brett Favre or Kurt Warner at the end of their careers. He was supposed to be fool-proof, but Williams and the Saints ended up fooling Manning and sealing the game. Tracy Porter picked off Manning and returned it for a touchdown with 3:12 remaining.



“This is kind of a redemption that makes me feel a lot better,” Williams said. “I’m really happy for the people of New Orleans. They adopted me. When I came to town in January, I tried to tell them I wasn’t a savior.”



No, not a savior, just part of one very calculated gamble that played off.