BETWEEN MEETINGS IN BRISTOL — We pointed out this Chicago Tribune story Friday morning, but the issue of Soldier Field’s turf deserves a bit more discussion.



As we’ve noted before, there has been an ongoing discussion about the stadium’s annual transition from grass at the beginning of the season to frozen dirt by the end. Causes include rough Chicago falls and multiple uses of the field. This was an issue long before 2010, but new offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s precision scheme would seem to add urgency to establishing some stable footing on the field.



The issue could be resolved by replacing the grass with artificial turf, but the Bears’ reluctance stems from the possibility of a safety drop-off.



I think most of us would choose to play football on grass rather than turf. But that’s not the question in Chicago. The real question is this: Do you prefer to play half of a season on grass and half on dirt, or an entire season on turf? In other words, what are the safety issues of playing on dirt?



We can’t rule out this issue being one of business as well. The Chicago Park District runs Soldier Field and pays for multiple re-soddings during the year. In the long run, it would be cheaper for them to install artificial turf once. The Bears don’t have an economic incentive to make the transition.



That’s what I have to say about this and I’m sticking to it.

Falling



Competition for the left guard spot in Green Bay: When the dust settled from the Packers’ 2009 season, there was some sense that left guard Daryn Colledge’s left guard position could be turned over. Colledge hadn’t played well enough to guarantee a starting role in 2010, and he sat out the early part of the offseason program after refusing to sign his restricted free-agent tender. The Packers were looking for a place to play promising backup T.J. Lang, and they also would like to find a place for center/guard Jason Spitz if he returns healthy from a back injury. But this week, two revelations diminished that sense of competition — at least for the time being. Colledge signed his tender and Lang was revealed to have undergone surgery on his left wrist, putting him on the sideline until training camp. That turn of events could give Colledge enough time to lay important groundwork during organized team activities to retain the starting job in 2010.



Rising



Chicago’s reputation in the Cutler-Orton swap: Those who wanted to take a short-term view of the Jay Cutler-Kyle Orton trade last season noted the Bears probably wouldn’t have done much worse with Orton at quarterback in 2010. But any notion that Denver had stumbled into a steal should be alleviated by now. The Broncos have done nothing this offseason but collect quarterbacks, including a draft-day trade for future starter Tim Tebow. It’s clear the Broncos want no part of a future with Kyle Orton as their starter. Despite his struggles last season, Cutler remains the Bears’ starter for the foreseeable future.

The Dolphins traded 2007 first-round choice Ted Ginn Jr. to the 49ers for little in return.

Carpenter

Barron

Miami seemed anxious to dump him.



The Rams and Cowboys are making similar moves by swapping 2005 first-round tackle Alex Barron for 2006 first-round linebacker Bobby Carpenter. Both players had worn out their welcomes.



The move makes sense for St. Louis on one level because Barron doesn’t fit into the team’s long-term plans, and he would have left after the 2010 season anyway. Might as well get something in return. Barron should have more value to the Cowboys than he would to the Rams because Dallas has shown an ability to piece together an effective offensive line using unwanted parts. Tackle Marc Colombo, disappointing as a first-round pick in Chicago, became a starter for the Cowboys. Guard Leonard Davis, disappointing as a first-round pick in Arizona, has gone to three Pro Bowls in three seasons since signing with the Cowboys.



What will the Cowboys get out of Barron?



“I think the bigger question is how will an organization like the Rams get more out of Bobby Carpenter than a franchise like the Cowboys were able to?” tre_fizzle responded to the question above.



Good question. I haven’t watched Carpenter play much NFL linebacker because Carpenter hasn’t been a regular starter. He owns three starts in four NFL seasons.



“I don’t see what St. Louis got out of the trade,” Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. said during a phone conversation Monday. “Carpenter has been a complete bust. He feels like a linebacker without a position. He almost looks like a 3-4 outside linebacker. He was a good pass-rusher at Ohio State, but he is too stiff to be a true edge rusher and too stiff to be a 4-3 outside linebacker. I understand he is a former first-round pick, but I haven’t seen anything in the NFL that makes me think he can play linebacker.”



Williamson sees this as a “great” trade for the Cowboys.



“I was with the Browns and I was in on interviews with Barron (coming out of college),” Williamson said. “He is not a self-starter. I can see why his act would get old. Getting out of St. Louis could do him a lot of good. Barron has legitimate first-round talent, he plays both tackle spots and the bottom line is he plays a much more demanding position. I just don’t think you got anything back for the guy. I think Dallas became a much better football team and St. Louis became a slightly worse football team.”

While hashing through the demise of Oakland quarterback JaMarcus Russell, AFC West colleague Bill Williamson revisited the first round of the 2007 draft. Perhaps this is always the case three years later, but I was struck at the disparate impact that draft had on the NFC North.



Two teams drafted the player now considered the best on their roster. Another team totally whiffed. And a fourth has put its first-rounder into a transition phase of his career.



Take a look at the chart below. Detroit drafted receiver Calvin Johnson and Minnesota gobbled up tailback Adrian Peterson. Green Bay, meanwhile, has gotten 13 games, 28 tackles and no sacks from oft-injured defensive lineman Justin Harrell. Chicago had tight end Greg Olsen on an ascending ladder until shifting to an offense this year that will require more blocking than he is used to.



Wow. I think I just decided that the draft is a crapshoot. Take that to the house.

There is little chance JaMarcus Russell will be claimed off waivers because of his large salary. However, I bet some team gives him another chance at some point.



He is only 24 and he has a great arm. NFL coaches are very arrogant. They think they can make players stars. So, some team will likely give Russell the league minimum salary and another chance.



With the help of my fellow bloggers, here is a list of some teams that could take a look at Russell.



Arizona: The Cardinals aren’t exactly set at quarterback.



Buffalo: The Bills have a need for someone who can help now. That’s not Russell.



Chicago: Bears’ offensive coordinator Mike Martz loves big arms. But the Bears would likely want a more experienced backup.



Cincinnati: The Bengals could use a backup and they aren’t afraid of adding anyone.



Minnesota: If Brett Favre doesn’t come back, there could be a need there.



New Orleans: Maybe Sean Payton and a return to Louisiana could spark his career.



Philadelphia: The Eagles aren’t scared of bringing in quarterbacks.



San Francisco: The 49ers could use another arm, but not sure how this would fly in the Bay Area. Raiders’ fans would love it.



Washington: Mike Shanahan would probably love to stick it to Al Davis and make something out of Russell.

I’m a little late to this party, but maybe it’s because I’ve never understood the ruckus resonating from Gale Sayers’ recent comments about the state of Chicago’s franchise. From what I’ve seen of his banquet speech in Omaha, Neb., the “criticism” was reasonable and in most cases defensible.



Here’s the key quote based on The Associated Press’ account:



“Cutler hasn’t done the job. [Linebacker Brian] Urlacher, I don’t know how good he’s going to be coming back. He’s 33 years old. They need a couple wide receivers, a couple defensive backs. They haven’t done a good job. If Lovie [Smith] doesn’t do it this year, I think he’s gone. He had a good team the Super Bowl year. Nothing came together for him the last couple years.”



Contrast that statement to those we heard last year from former Minnesota quarterback Fran Tarkenton, who came off as a bit crazed and mostly out of touch in criticizing the Vikings’ pursuit of quarterback Brett Favre. Among other things, Tarkenton proved to be about 25 years late on the realization that NFL players don’t have the same loyalties to their original teams as players of his generation did.



In Sayers’ case, I’m sure the Bears would prefer not to have a Hall of Fame alumnus pointing out their potential pitfalls in public. But let’s look at what Sayers said on face value:

• Cutler hasn’t done the job. We only have one year to go on, but no one could argue that Cutler did the job the Bears were expecting last year. You could interpret the statement to suggest Sayers doesn’t expect much improvement, which would be unfair. But that reading would be an inference at best.
• [Linebacker Brian] Urlacher, I don’t know how good he’s going to be coming back. He’s 33 years old. Frankly, it’s refreshing to hear someone with football credibility say this in public. We haven’t seen the “real” Brian Urlacher for at least two seasons. Last year’s wrist injury shouldn’t have long-term impact, but it’s wrong to assume Urlacher will be the same player he was in 2006 simply because he has recovered from it. Be it bad luck or a trend, there is an undeniable pattern of physical breakdown over the past few years.
• They need a couple wide receivers, a couple defensive backs. They haven’t done a good job. This is more of an opinion, but one that is reasonably held. The Bears like their receiving corps, and it might prove to be more than adequate to make Mike Martz’s offense run. But it’s a projection, and projections are always fair game for questioning. The same is true at defensive back, where I presume Sayers was referring to the unsettled nature of the safety position.
• If Lovie doesn’t do it this year, I think he’s gone. He had a good team the Super Bowl year. Nothing came together for him the last couple years. Again, what is there to argue here? Smith’s now-or-never status has seemed cemented for months, ever since team president Ted Phillips said this in January: “We don’t feel that we have to put up with another losing year.”

(I even agreed with what Sayers said about silly comparisons between him and New Orleans running back Reggie Bush: “You can’t compare that, because he gets hurt too much. He’s a fine young man. He’s a little light. He’s not a player who’s going to carry 25 times a game. He’ll get five carries, catch three passes and run back a couple punts.”)



I wouldn’t blame the Bears if they are stung by Sayers’ comments. He is a big part of their history and someone I’m sure they would prefer to be promoting the team rather than questioning its direction. But as they say, sometimes the truth hurts.

Preseason predictions are a lot like flying lessons. You can practice and study and anticipate as much as you want while sitting in a simulator. The reality, however, is no one knows if you can fly a plane until you get up in the (real) air.



That’s a pretentious, Minnesota cake-eating way of acknowledging the limited value of predicting in May who will sit atop the NFC North on the night of Jan. 2, 2011. But to the extent that it matters, and following up on our “faulty assumptions” discussion from last week, I think we are erring in assuming that Minnesota should be the preseason favorite to repeat as division champions.



In fact, if I had to pick a winner right now — and I don’t, and it doesn’t matter, but I’m doing it anyway — I would go with Green Bay. (Audience: Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.)



I’ll state my case in a bit. But first, let’s consider the most quantitative way I’m aware of to make these predictions. We first introduced you to AccuScore last summer as Brett Favre was moving closer to joining the Vikings. The AccuScore people develop variables to create digital profiles for NFL coaches and players. Those profiles are used to create “teams” that are then run through a computer simulation to play out a “season” based on each team’s actual NFL schedule.



Using 10,000 such simulated seasons last year, AccuScore correctly predicted the NFC North’s final standings. This year, as you can see in the charts below, AccuScore is picking Minnesota to win the division if Favre returns and the Packers if he doesn’t.





ESPN.com’s Spring Power Rankings also pick Minnesota to finish ahead of Green Bay, presumably based on similar expectations for Favre. But I think we should at least question whether Favre’s presence automatically will give the Vikings a division title. These are two teams, after all, that finished within a game of each other last season, primarily as a result of Minnesota’s season sweep.



(Sorry, Chicago and Detroit. My head isn’t big enough to consider more than two division contenders right now.)



Here’s where I’m coming from:

1. Favre made an undeniable impact on the Vikings last season, but let’s not forget it came as a result of arguably the best season of his career. He threw seven interceptions in 2009 after throwing at least twice that many in 14 of his previous 17 full seasons. To be fair, we can’t rule out a repeat performance. But what do you think is more likely: A 2010 season closer to his career averages or another precedent-setter? If a modest slip accounts for even one additional loss, it could be enough for the Packers to leapfrog them in the standings.
2. If Favre is less effective in 2010, it stands to reason he’ll be less dangerous to the Packers’ biggest weakness of last season: Pass defense against elite quarterbacks. When you look at Green Bay’s schedule, you see eight games in which they will face a quarterback who has played in a Pro Bowl. But I would only consider three of those games — two against Favre and one against New England’s Tom Brady — to feature the kind of elite passers who ravaged the Packers last season. And this doesn’t take into account the possibility that the Packers’ pass defense will improve independently of Favre’s potential slide. I have my doubts about the Packers’ potential for improvement, but it’s conceivable the Vikings will be less equipped to exploit it.
3. There are some areas in which Green Bay unquestionably has improved and Minnesota appears to have weakened since the start of last season. The Packers, for one, have a more balanced passing attack following the emergence of tight end Jermichael Finley. As long as 35-year-old receiver Donald Driver can provide another productive season, Green Bay has a yin-and-yang passing tree that will be much more difficult to defend than it was in the first half of 2009.
4. The Packers also appear to have a better plan at offensive line than they had entering the 2009 season. They have a veteran starter locked in at both tackle positions with skilled younger players set to back up both of them. First-round draft pick Bryan Bulaga will play behind left tackle Chad Clifton and T.J. Lang likely will be behind right tackle Mark Tauscher. This scenario minimizes the chance of jailbreak pass “protection” that set back the Packers early last season.
5. Minnesota’s pass rush shouldn’t miss a beat as long as defensive end Ray Edwards returns to complement Jared Allen and Kevin Williams. But the back seven is in an underdiscussed transition mode as spring practice begins. It’s uncertain whether longtime middle linebacker E.J. Henderson will make a full return from a fractured leg, and the drop-off to second-year player Jasper Brinkley is notable. Starting cornerback Cedric Griffin will need several more months to rehabilitate a torn anterior cruciate ligament, leaving veterans Lito Sheppard and Benny Sapp to man his position. No NFL team seemed willing to give Sheppard or Sapp a starting job in free agency this year. And the Vikings only can hope that 33-year-old cornerback Antoine Winfield is fully recovered from a fractured foot that limited him last season.
6. Green Bay’s schedule gives the team a better chance to jump to an early division lead than the Vikings’. With games against Buffalo, Detroit, Washington and Miami, the Packers have a decent chance to be 5-1 or 6-0 heading into an Oct. 24 showdown against the Vikings at Lambeau Field. The Vikings, meanwhile, face difficult games at New Orleans and at the New York Jets. They’ll have done well to be 4-2 at that point. But the bottom line is that there is a decent chance the Packers could establish a three-game lead in the division before November starts.

This is just one early-May take. I’m sure you have your own. Remember: We’re still in the simulator. Nothing more. Let’s take pleasure from a consequence-free environment.

Kurt Warner’s retirement did more than stir debate over which NFC West team should win the division in 2010.



It also begs a separate, related question: Which NFC West team has the best quarterback?



And by best quarterback, let’s focus on the best for this season, not for a player’s career. All those touchdown passes Matt Hasselbeck threw from 2003 to 2007 will probably land him a spot in the Seahawks’ Ring of Honor, but they mean less for the sake of this conversation — unless you expect him to recapture past form while playing behind an improved line and within a superior scheme. Likewise, all those interceptions the 49ers’ Alex Smith threw in 2005 mean little — unless you expect him to improbably revert to rookie form.



“If healthy, which is a huge ‘if,’ I think you still need to give this honor to Hasselbeck,” said Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc.



For now.



“My hunch is that if you asked me this again about halfway through the season, I would probably pick Smith,” Williamson said. “I still have a fair amount of hope for him and his supporting cast should now make his job much easier. The great unknown for the big picture is [new Seahawks backup] Charlie Whitehurst, though, and who knows? Maybe he comes in midway through the season and really lights it up.”



In which case Hasselbeck wouldn’t be the best quarterback on his team, let alone the division.



Figuring out what Hasselbeck has left requires projecting how well the Seahawks’ new offensive coordinator, Jeremy Bates, and new line coach, Alex Gibbs, can utilize scheme to shield the quarterback from big hits. Jay Cutler took only 11 sacks in 16 starts for Denver in 2008 when the Broncos were running the scheme Bates has brought to Seattle (Bates was the Broncos’ quarterbacks coach at the time). This is Bates’ first year as a coordinator, however, and his head coach is Pete Carroll, who built his reputation on defense, not Mike Shanahan.



Hasselbeck had thrown 14 touchdown passes with eight interceptions through Week 14 last season. He then threw three touchdown passes with nine interceptions over the final three games of the season. He played hurt most of the season, suffering damaged ribs in Week 2 and a shoulder injury later.



Those injuries can work in Hasselbeck’s favor for the sake of this discussion — imagine what he might do if healthy — or they can serve as more evidence he’s winding down as his 35th birthday nears. Hasselbeck has 22 touchdowns, 27 interceptions and a 6-15 record as a starter over the past two seasons.



Smith finished last season with 18 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and a 5-5 starting record.



The Cardinals’ Matt Leinart nearly won his only start last season, losing only when the Titans put together a 99-yard touchdown drive to end the game, but he was erratic in mop-up duty the rest of the season. The team even went back to Warner after Leinart and the offense struggled to hold a big lead at Chicago. Leinart has 14 touchdowns and 20 interceptions for his career. He has one start over the past two seasons and 17 for his career. The Cardinals went 4-2 over his final six starts as a rookie in 2006. They went 7-4 over an 11-start period spanning the 2006 and 2007 seasons, but Warner helped win some of those games.



“I can’t even see putting [Rams rookie] Sam Bradford in the conversation just yet and really, Matt Leinart has done zero as well — but at least has had an opportunity in the NFL already,” Williamson said. “For the long term, surely I would want the Bradford, but overall, this isn’t a real illustrious group!”



That, as much as anything, explains why it’s tough to select a consensus favorite to win the division this season.

What NFC North assistant coach will make the biggest impact in 2010?



I started wondering about that question while reading about the career and death of longtime NFL assistant Bob Karmelowicz, who coached Detroit’s defensive line last season and carried a well-deserved reputation for improving established players. A number of candidates come to mind, but I can’t think of any who sits in the position of Chicago offensive line coach Mike Tice.



Tice has assumed responsibility for a group that admittedly underperformed in 2009 but will still return four of its starters. Center Olin Kreutz hopes that offseason surgery to remove bone spurs from his ankle will help him return to form. But for the most part, the Bears are counting on Tice to elevate this group based on technical adjustments and a new brand of motivation.



The arrival of new offensive coordinator Mike Martz has been heavily discussed. But for the Bears’ offense to improve in 2010, Tice will have to find a way to make Frank Omiyale a productive player at right tackle. He’ll have to develop a left guard, be it Josh Beekman or Lance Louis or even journeyman tackle Kevin Shaffer. And he’ll have to do it in an offense that typically favors the passing game.



Minnesota defensive end Jared Allen remembered Karmelowicz as a coach who taught him how to use his natural abilities to play at an elite level. The Bears are hoping for a similar impact from Tice.

Jed Jacobsohn/Getty ImagesJoe Cullen is back in the NFL, bringing energy and high-decibel levels to the defensive coaching staff.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — The volume’s been turned up to 11 over at the defensive line area of the Jaguars’ practice.



Joe Cullen prowls and hollers, prods and hoorays as he pushes a revamped group that’s expected to revitalize Jacksonville’s defense.



Last year’s 14 sacks were the fifth-worst total in the league since it started keeping sack stats in 1982. Enter Cullen, a once successful coach in Detroit who made national headlines for passing through a drive-through naked, a stunt that ultimately landed him out of the league.



Now he’s been given a second chance as well as the first four picks of the Jaguars’ draft and a veteran rusher in free-agent addition Aaron Kampman.



The Jaguars didn’t do much behind that line. Veteran linebacker Kirk Morrison, acquired in a trade with Oakland, is the only real notable addition. A better pass rush, they say repeatedly, will do much to cure other ills like those at safety.



As Cullen had each lineman weave through four tackling dummies at minicamp practices that wrap up Monday, clubbing and ripping each one before turning left and flattening a fake quarterback, he left little unsaid.



“It’s time to get double-digit sacks around here Harv,” he bellowed to end Derrick Harvey, the team’s top draft pick in 2008. “Not four sacks. That’s what you were brought here to do: Rush.”



He urged “tempo, tempo” and his assistant, Ben Albert reminded the troops: “We’ve got to reclaim the line of scrimmage.”



“I think this is a great group they’ve given me to work with,” Cullen said. “…It all starts up front. Basically the organization and the team is depending on us to lead the team, to lead the troops.”



Two veteran linemen, newcomer Kampman and Reggie Hayward who came here in 2005, both love Cullen so far.



“I love his passion,” said Kampman, the former Green Bay star. “The position is so much about relentlessness, tenacity and obviously those are some of his strong characteristics as a coach. He knows a lot about rushing the quarterback. He’s learned from a lot of great guys in his career and one thing I’ve learned is you always look at the pedigree.”



Those influences include Chicago defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli and Indianapolis defensive line coach John Teerlinck.



Said Hayward: “[Cullen’s] whole motto is to work hard, to go after it. He’s an intense little guy from upper New York or Jersey or somewhere. He says ‘tonic’ and not ‘soda’ and he’s a little fireball. That’s what you need, man. I think he’s perfect for what we’ve got going on.”



“The identity of the D-line is going to be hard work. We may not be as big as John Henderson or Marcus Stroud. But most of the time making plays is just effort. Do you give up? Or do you continue to work?”



The Jaguars hired Cullen in January with the blessing of commissioner Roger Goodell.



The quick recap of his fall: Cullen drove through a suburban Detroit Wendy’s naked in 2006 — a scene later revisited through a Jon Kitna Halloween costume. Cullen was arrested for that and separately for a DUI, incidents that led to a suspension for one game by the team, another game by the league and a fine of $20,000 for conduct detrimental to the league.



The two cases resulted in fines and 10 days of community service as well as a judge’s order to attend outpatient treatment and Alcoholics Anonymous meetings.



“Motivated guys are great, right?” asked head coach Jack Del Rio. “Players or coaches, that’s what you want… I know Joe’s very hungry for an opportunity, when he’s been in the league and the line’s he’s worked with he’s done a nice job with and I think he’s very thankful for a second shot.”



“All I know is that there isn’t a single one of us that’s perfect, I know I’m not,” Kampman said. “This profession obviously puts you in a fishbowl and the great thing is that I know he’s addressed it with the group and is moving forward. Each and every one of us needs to be about redemption.”



Cullen started off our chat with an emphasis on how grateful he is to owner Wayne Weaver, GM Gene Smith and Del Rio for the second chance.



In three seasons in the same post in Detroit, he had pretty good line play on pretty bad teams. In 2007 the Lions jumped from 24th to ninth in the NFL in sacks, and the defensive line accounted for 28.5, seventh-most in the league.



But he was exiled in 2009 when the Lions started over with a new coaching staff. He spent the year as an assistant at Idaho State.



He and his 2010 draft class will get a lot of attention this year. His rookie pupils include tackle Tyson Alualu, the 10th overall pick from Cal, third-round tackle D’Anthony Smith and fifth-round ends Larry Hart and Austen Lane.



“They’re very talented, they’re very gifted,” Hayward said. “This is the time for someone to say, ‘Hey, we’ve got a lot at stake here. Now do you want to mess it up by being a goof off or do something special?’”



Cullen isn’t so much worried about quantity as quality in the sack department. He said he craves “impact sacks,” the kind that come with strips or turn field position at a crucial spot in a game.



The defensive line won’t be judged on sacks and can affect games in many more ways, Smith said.



“I think it’s about making the quarterback move,” Smith said. “You’d like to get him down a lot. But you make him move, most quarterbacks who can’t set their feet to throw, cannot throw the ball accurately. So you get opportunities for more pass break-ups, for interceptions and you certainly get opportunities to get off the field with an incompletion.”



Cullen’s hardly set modest goals, especially considering it’s a team with one very big star in running back Maurice Jones-Drew.



“We’re going to be the face of the organization and really be the group that creates a relentless attitude about getting to where we want to be,” he said. “So we’ve got to not just be good, we’ve got to be great in everything we do.”