Preseason predictions are a lot like flying lessons. You can practice and study and anticipate as much as you want while sitting in a simulator. The reality, however, is no one knows if you can fly a plane until you get up in the (real) air.



That’s a pretentious, Minnesota cake-eating way of acknowledging the limited value of predicting in May who will sit atop the NFC North on the night of Jan. 2, 2011. But to the extent that it matters, and following up on our “faulty assumptions” discussion from last week, I think we are erring in assuming that Minnesota should be the preseason favorite to repeat as division champions.



In fact, if I had to pick a winner right now — and I don’t, and it doesn’t matter, but I’m doing it anyway — I would go with Green Bay. (Audience: Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.)



I’ll state my case in a bit. But first, let’s consider the most quantitative way I’m aware of to make these predictions. We first introduced you to AccuScore last summer as Brett Favre was moving closer to joining the Vikings. The AccuScore people develop variables to create digital profiles for NFL coaches and players. Those profiles are used to create “teams” that are then run through a computer simulation to play out a “season” based on each team’s actual NFL schedule.



Using 10,000 such simulated seasons last year, AccuScore correctly predicted the NFC North’s final standings. This year, as you can see in the charts below, AccuScore is picking Minnesota to win the division if Favre returns and the Packers if he doesn’t.





ESPN.com’s Spring Power Rankings also pick Minnesota to finish ahead of Green Bay, presumably based on similar expectations for Favre. But I think we should at least question whether Favre’s presence automatically will give the Vikings a division title. These are two teams, after all, that finished within a game of each other last season, primarily as a result of Minnesota’s season sweep.



(Sorry, Chicago and Detroit. My head isn’t big enough to consider more than two division contenders right now.)



Here’s where I’m coming from:

1. Favre made an undeniable impact on the Vikings last season, but let’s not forget it came as a result of arguably the best season of his career. He threw seven interceptions in 2009 after throwing at least twice that many in 14 of his previous 17 full seasons. To be fair, we can’t rule out a repeat performance. But what do you think is more likely: A 2010 season closer to his career averages or another precedent-setter? If a modest slip accounts for even one additional loss, it could be enough for the Packers to leapfrog them in the standings.
2. If Favre is less effective in 2010, it stands to reason he’ll be less dangerous to the Packers’ biggest weakness of last season: Pass defense against elite quarterbacks. When you look at Green Bay’s schedule, you see eight games in which they will face a quarterback who has played in a Pro Bowl. But I would only consider three of those games — two against Favre and one against New England’s Tom Brady — to feature the kind of elite passers who ravaged the Packers last season. And this doesn’t take into account the possibility that the Packers’ pass defense will improve independently of Favre’s potential slide. I have my doubts about the Packers’ potential for improvement, but it’s conceivable the Vikings will be less equipped to exploit it.
3. There are some areas in which Green Bay unquestionably has improved and Minnesota appears to have weakened since the start of last season. The Packers, for one, have a more balanced passing attack following the emergence of tight end Jermichael Finley. As long as 35-year-old receiver Donald Driver can provide another productive season, Green Bay has a yin-and-yang passing tree that will be much more difficult to defend than it was in the first half of 2009.
4. The Packers also appear to have a better plan at offensive line than they had entering the 2009 season. They have a veteran starter locked in at both tackle positions with skilled younger players set to back up both of them. First-round draft pick Bryan Bulaga will play behind left tackle Chad Clifton and T.J. Lang likely will be behind right tackle Mark Tauscher. This scenario minimizes the chance of jailbreak pass “protection” that set back the Packers early last season.
5. Minnesota’s pass rush shouldn’t miss a beat as long as defensive end Ray Edwards returns to complement Jared Allen and Kevin Williams. But the back seven is in an underdiscussed transition mode as spring practice begins. It’s uncertain whether longtime middle linebacker E.J. Henderson will make a full return from a fractured leg, and the drop-off to second-year player Jasper Brinkley is notable. Starting cornerback Cedric Griffin will need several more months to rehabilitate a torn anterior cruciate ligament, leaving veterans Lito Sheppard and Benny Sapp to man his position. No NFL team seemed willing to give Sheppard or Sapp a starting job in free agency this year. And the Vikings only can hope that 33-year-old cornerback Antoine Winfield is fully recovered from a fractured foot that limited him last season.
6. Green Bay’s schedule gives the team a better chance to jump to an early division lead than the Vikings’. With games against Buffalo, Detroit, Washington and Miami, the Packers have a decent chance to be 5-1 or 6-0 heading into an Oct. 24 showdown against the Vikings at Lambeau Field. The Vikings, meanwhile, face difficult games at New Orleans and at the New York Jets. They’ll have done well to be 4-2 at that point. But the bottom line is that there is a decent chance the Packers could establish a three-game lead in the division before November starts.

This is just one early-May take. I’m sure you have your own. Remember: We’re still in the simulator. Nothing more. Let’s take pleasure from a consequence-free environment.

As previously noted, Minnesota state legislators announced formal legislation Monday for a new Vikings stadium, one they hope will be approved during the final two weeks of this year’s session. According to a news release, it proposes a $791 million project — paid for by a combination of sports-themed lottery tickets; taxes on hotels, rental cars, jerseys; and a $264 million contribution from the Vikings/NFL.



The Vikings would also be responsible for any cost overruns, which seem likely considering the project was originally priced at anywhere between $870 million and $980 million.



Now starts the grimy political process of determining if enough state leaders will support the project. Already, a team spokesman has balked at the $264 million contribution; owner Zygi Wilf has previously capped his commitment to $215 million, including a loan from the NFL. But the bottom line is that the Vikings have two more years on their lease at the Metrodome, after which they will become franchise “free agents.”



Over on our Facebook page, Israel asks the most pertinent long-term question:

If the new Vikings stadium bill does not pass, what are the chances Mr. Wilf tries to sell the team? How would this affect any upcoming free agents such as Sidney Rice, Adrian Peterson, and Chad Greenway?

There are many people closely tracking the use of their tax money here, but Israel’s question cuts to what I think is the biggest issue.



I don’t think anything significant will happen immediately if the bill is rejected this year, other than the possibility of higher costs if the issue is re-considered next winter. But if it ultimately becomes clear that funding won’t be approved, I believe Wilf will give strong consideration to selling the team.



I don’t believe Wilf will move the team himself. My educated guess is that he isn’t interested in having his family name associated with the departure of a franchise the way “Irsay” is known in Baltimore and “Modell” in Cleveland. But selling to a new owner who wants to relocate would allow Wilf to escape that legacy.



If Wilf puts the team up for sale, I can tell you it’s generally not a good short-term sign for the franchise. Every situation is different, but in most sale situations, it doesn’t make sense to invest more than what is absolutely necessary to maintain the franchise value. Sure, the Vikings would be better off signing their star players to long-term contracts. But would it change the franchise value if they depart via free agency? In most cases, probably not.



Vikings fans witnessed that approach for three years under former owner Red McCombs. More recently, St. Louis hasn’t exactly broken the bank this winter while awaiting the conclusion of its sale process. The Rams will have to pay quarterback Sam Bradford what could be a record NFL contract, but the lack of negotiations thus far causes a cynic to wonder if current ownership is hoping to leave future ownership with the bill.



The Vikings are nowhere close to that point right now. But I think people in Minnesota are fooling themselves if they believe nothing will change if a stadium is indefinitely delayed.

PITTSBURGH — The Steelers are hosting their mandatory minicamp this weekend, and without star quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (suspension), a lot of attention will be focused this offseason on feature tailback Rashard Mendenhall.



The former first-round pick burst on the scene last year by recording 1,108 yards in just 12 starts with the Steelers. Expectations are even higher for the talented Mendenhall this year, especially since the offense likely will focus on the run without Roethlisberger under center to start the season.



“I don’t put too much pressure on myself,” Mendenhall said. “I just come in and try and work and better myself day. So come time for the season, I’ll be ready for anything.”



Mendenhall had an interesting offseason routine that he hopes will help him carry the load. Similar to Cincinnati Bengals receiver Chad Ochocinco, Mendenhall took dance classes.



Initially, Mendenhall tried dancing after fracturing his shoulder during his rookie season.



“I just wanted something to do to keep moving around that was kind of fun. So I started taking a dance class, and I’ve been doing it ever since,” Mendenhall said. “I feel like it’s good exercise, and it strengthens parts of your body that you normally don’t work on. Plus, it’s more fun than anything.”



As the Steelers begin to tweak their offense for the first four or six games of the season, expect Mendenhall to be heavily in the fold. He’s only 22 and doesn’t have much wear and tear.



Pittsburgh also is looking to get back to the smash-mouth brand that’s gotten away from the franchise the past few years. The Steelers drafted talented center/guard Maurkice Pouncey in the first round to help them succeed in the area.



But Pittsburgh’s quarterback position remains unsettled. Veteran Byron Leftwich is getting first-team reps in minicamp and is expected to compete with Dennis Dixon in training camp. Charlie Batch also is in the mix.



“As time goes on and we go into camp, we’ll start to shape what we do as an offense,” Mendenhall said. “But me and the team, we have a lot of confidence in Byron, Dennis, Charlie, whoever steps in there.”

Falling



Baltimore Ravens‘ cornerback depth: Baltimore did not address its cornerback situation last week in the draft. The position remains one of the team’s biggest question marks. The Ravens have cornerbacks. The problem is two of their top three players at the position, Lardarius Webb and Fabian Washington, are coming off major knee surgeries. Will either cornerback be ready for training camp? Will both be healthy enough to play in Week 1? Could they struggle with the injuries throughout the season? It’s a process Baltimore has to continue to monitor and eventually decide if it’s a worthy investment to sign a veteran. The draft was very deep at cornerback, particularly in the first three rounds. But the Ravens addressed other needs like defensive line, outside linebacker and tight end. According to most draft experts, Baltimore had one of the league’s better drafts. But pass defense remains one of the few questions for this otherwise stacked team across the board.



Rising



Cincinnati Bengals‘ passing game: Conscious of its struggles throwing the football at the end of last season, Cincinnati put on the full-court press to improve in that area this offseason. It started with the acquisition of free-agent receiver Antonio Bryant to replace Laveranues Coles. Then the Bengals capped it off with drafting two highly-touted prospects in tight end Jermaine Gresham and receiver Jordan Shipley. Cincinnati quarterback Carson Palmer should be very happy. He has struggled getting production in the middle of the field since the loss of receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Gresham and Shipley specialize in wreaking havoc over the middle and should open up the entire field for Palmer and No. 1 receiver Chad Ochocinco. In seven years, Palmer has never had a legitimate threat at tight end. But he does now.

This season is expected to be a close race in the division. So the drafts of the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns could go a long way toward determining who comes out on top.



With that said, here is a look at the decisions made this week in the AFC North:



Best move



The “Wizard of Oz” was at it again. After trading out of the first round for the first time in franchise history, Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome came back strong in the second round by grabbing two first-round talents in linebacker Sergio Kindle and defensive tackle Terrence “Mount” Cody.



Baltimore passed over some good players in the first round when the team traded its No. 25 overall pick to the Denver Broncos, who surprisingly selected former Florida quarterback Tim Tebow. In return the Ravens got three valuable picks and selected two potentials steals on defense in Kindle and Cody.



“Well, I think the biggest thing that we did [is] we got guys that we wouldn’t want to play against,” Ravens director of player personnel Eric DeCosta said. “You know, these guys all have, really, a dominant trait in some respect. They do different things very well, and that’s intriguing in our situation to get a linebacker that can really rush the passer — a very explosive guy. And then we’ve had a lot of success over the years with these massive run-stuffers. Terrence Cody is that guy.”



The Ravens had Kindle rated very high on their board and weren’t scared off by injury concerns about his knee. That was the reason he fell to the second round. Cody has weight issues. But if he’s able to keep that under control, Cody can be a force alongside Pro Bowler Haloti Ngata to create one of the biggest pairings of defensive tackles in the league.



Riskiest move



It’s hard to doubt the Steelers with their stellar track record. But they did ignore more immediate needs in the top half of this year’s draft.



Pittsburgh passed over help in other areas early to grab pass-rushers Jason Worilds and Thaddeus Gibson. Barring injuries, this pair of outside linebackers will have a very hard time getting on the field while sitting behind Pro Bowlers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley.



Worilds and Gibson could turn out to be productive players at some point. But if I had rated positions of need for the Steelers entering this draft, outside linebacker would have been last.



In particular, there were plenty of quality defensive linemen available in the first three or four rounds who could’ve provided a more immediate impact in Pittsburgh’s defensive rotation. But the team did a solid job addressing another immediate need at cornerback by trading with the Arizona Cardinals for former Steelers starter Bryant McFadden.



Most surprising move



Although it wasn’t shocking the Browns landed former Texas quarterback Colt McCoy, the manner in which Cleveland did it was very surprising.



The Browns really liked McCoy, particularly his intangibles and accuracy, but felt they had more pressing needs to address early in the draft. Cleveland instead plugged holes in the secondary and at running back for three rounds as McCoy surprisingly slid further than expected.



When the Browns came up at No. 85 overall, Cleveland finally got its quarterback of the future.



“In Colt’s case, I really didn’t think that he would be available to us,” Browns president Mike Holmgren said. “I really felt that he would go before we had a chance to pick him. But when it didn’t happen, it was something I really wanted to do and [coach] Eric [Mangini] and [GM] Tom [Heckert] went along with me and there you have it.”



McCoy, a projected early second-rounder, wasn’t too thrilled about his slide. But it could work in his favor.



As much as the city of Cleveland tends to love its backup quarterbacks, McCoy is coming to the Browns as a low third-rounder and without a ton of pressure to perform immediately.



Veteran quarterback Jake Delhomme is the starter in 2010, and the team has an experienced backup in Seneca Wallace. So McCoy should be able to hold a clipboard, learn the offense and get used to the NFL game for a full season before Cleveland thinks about putting him on the field.



“I don’t expect him to play this year,” Holmgren said. “We didn’t draft [McCoy] to play this year.”



File it away



The Bengals’ third-round selection of Texas receiver Jordan Shipley adds a tremendous amount of competition to Cincinnati’s receiving corps. Out of necessity, expect a surprise cut or two at the position coming out of training camp.



Pro Bowler Chad Ochocinco and free-agent pickup Antonio Bryant are set as the two starters. But Shipley, Andre Caldwell, Matt Jones, Quan Cosby and former second-round pick Jerome Simpson also will compete for roles on the team.



There are not enough roster spots to carry everyone. Could this be the year Cincinnati cuts ties with Simpson, who has been a bust his first two seasons? Or will the controversial signing of Jones, who’s had off-field troubles and was out of football last season, be for naught? Cosby, last year’s punt returner, also is a possible cut.



The Bengals have a lot of options in their passing game, which struggled at the end of last season. But they will have to make some key decisions about who will be a part of it in 2010.

Giants coach Tom Coughlin began the offseason by firing his defensive coordinator and defensive line coach. He hired Perry Fewell to take over that side of the ball based on the assistant’s reputation for being aggressive and fiery.



And on the first two days of the draft, Coughlin and general manager Jerry Reese sent another powerful message to their players. They will not simply keep their fingers crossed that key players on the defense will have bounce-back seasons. They may just replace them all together. On Thursday night, Reese selected South Florida defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul at No. 15 overall based in no small part on his freakish athleticism. The Giants already have a couple players who are built like Pierre-Paul — Mathias Kiwanuka and Osi Umenyiora — but that didn’t matter to Reese and Coughlin.



They selected three defensive players during the first two days of the draft because they’re determined to regain their identity. Coughlin was embarrassed that his team was blown off the line of scrimmage during a miserable 2010 season. He tried benching players down the stretch, but that only made him look more desperate. The Giants didn’t have enough depth at safety when Kenny Phillips injured his knee in Week 2 against the Cowboys. Reese vowed to never let something like that happen again and that’s one of the reasons he selected LSU safety Chad Jones with the 76th overall pick Friday. If Phillips isn’t fully recovered by the start of the season, the Giants should be covered with Deon Grant and Jones waiting in the wings.



Last offseason, Reese added defensive tackles Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard in free agency. Canty suffered an injury in training camp and he was hobbled throughout the season. I’m not sure if Bernard had any excuse for his awful season in which he spent a lot of time backpedaling. The Giants were blown off the ball at the line of scrimmage, which made it tough for linebackers to make plays. That’s why Reese went after 6-foot-4, 319-pound defensive tackle Linval Joseph out of East Carolina in the second round. He should fit in immediately at left defensive tackle, where he’ll try to overpower guards like Fred Robbins did in 2007. Joseph has a 31-inch vertical and a penchant for blowing up running backs at the line of scrimmage.



“I like to stop the run,” said Joseph. “I like to hit the running back, I don’t why. I just like to hit the running back. So, I like to play inside. I feel comfortable inside. But I also like getting outside and trying to hit the quarterback.”



Coughlin talked briefly Friday about his vision for Joseph, who bypassed his senior season at East Carolina.



“What we were able to do was to penetrate and of course to keep people off the linebacker level,” Coughlin said, referring to the 2007 and 2008 seasons. “No one was being pushed back into the linebacker depth. That is what has to be re-established again — keep some people clean so they can go to the ball carrier”



Of course, Giants fans might be curious to know if Reese and Coughlin are interested in finding a middle linebacker. That was certainly an area of need, but it wasn’t addressed on the first two days. For now, the Giants are more interested in regaining their identity up front.



And if someone doesn’t like it (Osi), that’s too bad. Reese has always talked about how the Giants want to create competition in the offseason and training camp. He doesn’t believe in handouts — even when players and their agents go to great lengths for guarantees.



The Giants are still a work in progress, but they took a major step Thursday and Friday.

BEREA, Ohio — Cleveland Browns first-round pick Joe Haden has the charisma to light up a room.



Haden described himself as “outgoing, funny, and just likes to have a good time” in his introductory news conference. “I can’t stand being around people trying to bring me down.”



But the Browns are hoping Haden’s abilities help bring down opposing offenses. The former Florida cornerback is the first and signature pick of the Mike Holmgren era in Cleveland.



The team landed the draft’s top-rated cornerback at No. 7 with hopes of improving its No. 31-rated defense. Haden will combine with new teammates Sheldon Brown and Eric Wright to form arguably the deepest group of cornerbacks in the AFC North.



With quality receivers such as Anquan Boldin, Chad Ochocinco and Hines Ward within the division, Haden definitely has his work cut out for him. The aforementioned trio all recorded more than 1,000 yards receiving last season.



“It’s going to be a challenge, of course,” Haden said. “But I’m ready for everything. I’m just so blessed and honored too, because when I played at Florida I played against Andre Caldwell, Louis Murphy and Percy Harvin every day in practice. So playing against those dudes definitely got me ready for the next level.”



There have been a lot of reports about Cleveland’s draft intentions. The Browns attempted to trade up to the No. 1 overall pick to get former Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford, and they also had interest in former Tennessee safety Eric Berry, who went No. 5 to the Kansas City Chiefs.



In the end, the Browns stood pat and took the best player on their draft board.



“He’s one of the great young men that I’ve ever had the privilege of studying and meeting,” Holmgren said. “So as far as how we feel about this first pick, I really believe we hit a home run.”

BEREA, Ohio –The first draft of the Mike Holmgren era in Cleveland started off extremely busy.



Thursday began with the Browns president trying diligently to trade with the St. Louis Rams for the No. 1 overall pick to take quarterback Sam Bradford. That didn’t happen.



Cleveland then hoped former Tennessee safety Eric Berry would fall to No. 7. That didn’t happen, either.



In the end, the Browns feel they selected the best available player in Florida cornerback Joe Haden. On a day when Holmgren tried to make a huge splash by trading with St. Louis, Cleveland made a solid — albeit not very sexy — pick.



Rest assured there will be some skeptics wondering if Haden fills a big enough need with such a high pick, which comes with a huge financial commitment. Last year’s No. 7 overall pick — Oakland Raiders receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey — signed a contract in the range of $38 million. Haden likely will command about a $40 million package.



Yet at this point there’s no guarantee Haden will be a starter, and that could be a point of contention as a top-seven pick for a rebuilding team.



Cleveland just acquired veteran cornerback Sheldon Brown in a trade with the Philadelphia Eagles. He will be the No. 1 corner, while Haden competes with a pretty good player in Eric Wright for the No. 2 cornerback job.



“You can never have enough good corners,” Browns coach Eric Mangini said.



Cleveland was in an odd spot to begin with.



There were five sure-fire players, but after that the draft board became dicey. According to most projections, there was not a huge difference between the No. 7 pick and the No. 13 or No. 14 pick in this year’s draft. That is why the Browns explored moving up and down the draft board in the past few weeks.



Browns general manager Tom Heckert said the team didn’t get or field any offers to move down Thursday. Former Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen was available at No. 7. But no team got hot on Clausen and was willing to move up, which was probably Cleveland’s best chance to acquire more picks. Instead, Clausen was this year’s free-falling prospect.



As the roster is currently built, having Wright or Haden coming off the bench next season seems like an unnecessary surplus when Cleveland has so many other needs across the board.



For example, Mangini refused to name the team’s two starting safeties Thursday night because, frankly, the team doesn’t have two starting-caliber safeties. The Browns also could use help at running back, defensive line and receiver.



Mangini also said there are no thoughts of moving Brown to safety, which would make some sense if Cleveland wanted all three players on the field at the same time. With the way the draft board played out, former Texas safety Earl Thomas appeared to be a more logical fit in terms of need. The Browns admitted Thomas was in the conversation.



“Yes, Earl is a really good player,” Heckert said. “We all liked him.”



But the Browns were more happy with Haden. So was the former Florida star, who was ecstatic to come to Cleveland.



“I am just trying to soak it all up,” Haden said. “It’s crazy. Just a dream come true. I feel like this is a blessing.”



The Browns got a unique recruiting partner for Haden. Former Florida teammate and quarterback Tim Tebow, who shockingly went in the first round to the Denver Broncos on Thursday, spoke extremely highly of Haden during his visit to Cleveland. That carried a lot of weight with the Browns’ front office.



Haden is a much safer pick than his former quarterback. But Cleveland needs Haden to develop into a shutdown corner quickly to stop the likes of Anquan Boldin, Hines Ward and Chad Ochocinco within the AFC North division. All three receivers gained more than 1,000 yards last season.



Haden believes he’s ready.



“There’s always pressure when you’re out there on an island,” Haden said. “It’s just you versus him. At corner, you have to have a one-track mind and a short memory…When I’m out there, I know that I have to have a lot of film study and a lot of just knowing what‘s going on, and I have to be really comfortable.”

Each Wednesday leading up to the NFL draft (April 22-24), the ESPN.com blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today’s topic: Dream scenario/Plan B.



Chicago Bears



Dream scenario: Without a first- or second-round pick, Chicago’s dreams are pretty muted this week. They have significant needs at guard and cornerback, but nothing would make them happier than having a starting-caliber safety fall to them at No. 75 overall. The nature of the position, and the depth of this draft, makes it possible. They might not get South Florida’s Nate Allen, who is a likely second-round pick, but there should be other options. Finding a starter without having to sacrifice additional picks in a trade-up would be ideal.



Plan B: Guards are not highly coveted from a draft perspective, and if the Bears don’t like any of the safeties available to them at No. 75, they should be able to find someone to compete for their wide-open spot at left guard. As of now, the only veteran in the mix for that role is Josh Beekman.



Detroit Lions



Dream scenario: This might be too dreamy to actually happen, but here goes: The Lions acquire Washington defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth for a third-round pick. They draft Oklahoma State’s Russell Okung at No. 2 overall and grab Cal running back Jahvid Best at No. 34. Although they pass over arguably the two best prospects of the draft — defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy — the Lions still get an elite defensive tackle, a fixture at left tackle and a playmaker in the backfield who would be ready to contribute immediately while starter Kevin Smith continues his knee rehabilitation. I’ve shied away from this scenario, believing the cost for Haynesworth would be too high, but a third-round pick is pretty reasonable here.



Plan B: Frankly, getting a dynamic defensive playmaker at No. 2 — Suh or McCoy — is an awfully nice fallback position.



Green Bay Packers



Dream scenario: The Packers need a left tackle of the future. As this year’s draft class stacks up, there is a significant dropoff between the top four left tackles and whoever you consider to be No. 5. Currently situated at No. 23, the Packers probably aren’t going to get a chance at Okung, Oklahoma’s Trent Williams, Rutgers’ Anthony Davis or Iowa’s Bryan Bulaga. But as long as we’re in a dream-like state, we can hope that one of those four — Davis? — somehow slips to No. 23 or close enough that the Packers can make a reasonable trade up to get him.



Plan B: In our blog network mock draft, I proposed taking a chance on USC left tackle Charles Brown. He would probably get at least a year to develop, based on current starter Chad Clifton’s contract, and would benefit from being in a stable offensive environment.



Minnesota Vikings



Dream scenario: Vice president of player personnel Rick Spielman said this week that he is confident at least one of his four targeted players will be available with the No. 30 overall pick. I won’t hazard a guess at their identities, but ideally one of them would be a quarterback and fall to their spot. More than anything, this franchise needs a young quarterback to build around. More often than not, those quarterbacks are found at the top of the draft and at least in the first round. There are no assurances about waiting for next year. Getting their quarterback of the future is the Vikings’ dream scenario.



Plan B: The Vikings have a relatively strong roster otherwise, and therefore can afford to draft for value at every spot if they choose. If their quarterback of the future isn’t available at No. 30, or he can be selected lower in the draft, then they’ll benefit from additional depth that the best available player will bring.

Some refused to believe Jason Taylor actually would join forces with the New York Jets.



Taylor harbored a professed disdain for the Jets from his many years with the Miami Dolphins. In fact, skeptics theorized he visited the Jets two weeks ago as a ploy to get the Dolphins to spend a little more to re-sign him.



So much for that assumption.



Taylor agreed to terms with the Jets on Tuesday afternoon.



The NFL active sacks leader will join Rex Ryan’s defense, which ranked No. 1 last year in several major categories. As a complementary piece, Taylor is expected to be used exclusively on passing downs to get after opposing quarterbacks, including Chad Henne twice this year.



The Dolphins wanted to wait until after this week’s draft to address Taylor’s contract, but there would be no guarantee they’d be interested if they were to draft enough pass-rushing help to marginalize their need to bring Taylor back.



ESPN’s John Clayton reports Taylor’s contract is for two years but is heavily weighted for 2010. Taylor’s base salary is $1.75 million, but he can make as much as $3.75 million with incentives.



The contract was tricky because of limitations placed on the Jets through the “final eight” plan. In basic terms, clubs that reached the second round of the playoffs aren’t allowed to sign an unrestricted free agent until they lose one. When kicker Jay Feely signed with the Arizona Cardinals, the Jets were able to pick up Taylor.