Falling



Ravens OT Jared Gaither: Whether it’s an injury or unhappiness with his contract, Gaither’s stock took a hit during Baltimore’s recent minicamp. First, he was replaced at left tackle (we will get to that later). Then, Gaither stayed away from practices last weekend with what is said to be a foot injury. Entering the final year of his deal, Gaither prefers to get a large contract extension before the start of the 2010 season. But it doesn’t appear the Ravens are interested in giving it to him. There are also plenty of trade rumors surrounding the young offensive tackle.



Rising



Ravens OT Michael Oher: The player who replaced Gaither at left tackle in minicamp was Oher, the team’s 2009 first-round draft pick. Although it’s not 100 percent certain this move is permanent, the Ravens seem comfortable with it in the early stages. Even if Gaither is not traded, it wouldn’t be surprising if Oher remained on the left side, improving his stock. This experiment has been in the making since last season, when Oher held his own in place of Gaither, who was injured. The bigger question is who would play right tackle if Gaither is traded?

Falling



Adalius Thomas, free-agent outside linebacker: Almost three weeks after the Patriots released him, Thomas remains unemployed.



It seemed certain Thomas would reunite with Rex Ryan and join the New York Jets. The last time Thomas was effective was with Baltimore in 2006, when Ryan was defensive coordinator. But the Patriots held onto Thomas long enough that the Jets signed former Dolphins star Jason Taylor. As a result, there also was speculation the Dolphins would pursue Thomas to fortify the edge in their 3-4 defense.



“With him we’ll end up first in the league in defense, and without him we’ll end up first in the league in defense,” Ryan recently said. “If we get him, great. I’m not worried about him.”



Nobody seems to be. Thomas will turn 33 in training camp. He had 20 sacks in his final two seasons with Baltimore. He had 14.5 in his three seasons in New England and just three last year. Bill Belichick benched him for a pair of games.



Rising



Brandon Tate, Patriots receiver: Tate’s name hadn’t been mentioned much this offseason. The third-round pick from North Carolina appeared in two games and had zero receptions as a rookie last year and plays on a team that features Randy Moss, added Torry Holt and is more concerned with how Julian Edelman will fill in while Wes Welker recovers from knee and shoulder surgery.



But Patriots quarterback Tom Brady thrust Tate’s name into the conversation this week, making a point to rave about Tate’s offseason in a pair of interviews.



“I like Brandon Tate a lot,” Brady told Sports Illustrated. Brady later told Boston sports-radio station WEEI that Tate “has had a great offseason.”



That’s quite a blessing for a player otherwise known as a project. The Patriots were criticized for drafting Tate so early because he was rehabbing a knee injury that was expected to limit him for much of 2009. They activated him in Week 7, and he suffered another season-ending knee injury in Week 9.

They don’t crown NFL division champs before December or January, but we do — time and again.



The subject appeared tapped out pending additional offseason developments until ESPN.com teammate Kevin Seifert put together an NFC North prediction item that caught my prognosticating eye. Seifert consulted AccuScore projections showing what might happen if NFC North teams played out 10,000 repetitions of their 2010 schedules — with and without Brett Favre quarterbacking the Vikings.



“Using 10,000 such simulated seasons last year,” Seifert reported, “AccuScore correctly predicted the NFC North’s final standings. This year, AccuScore is picking Minnesota to win the division if Favre returns and the Packers if he doesn’t.”



That was interesting enough for me to ask AccuScore’s Stephen Oh to run similar projections for the NFC West — with and without Kurt Warner. But first I wanted to know Accuscore’s track record with the Cardinals coming off their Super Bowl appearance.



“Despite the Super Bowl hangover jinx,” Oh replied, “AccuScore’s 2009 season forecast gave Arizona the second-best chance of winning its division behind San Diego in the AFC West.”



Sure enough, the Cardinals posted a 10-6 record to win another division title.



The system is only as good as the variables used to value players and teams. As Seifert explained, “AccuScore people develop variables to create digital profiles for NFL coaches and players. Those profiles are used to create ‘teams’ that are then run through a computer simulation to play out a ’season’ based on each team’s actual NFL schedule.”



AccuScore played the NFC West season 10,000 times, first with Warner and then without him.



The Cardinals went from averaging 10.8 victories with Warner to 7.2 victories without him, making Warner worth 3.6 victories per season relative to backup Matt Leinart. While Warner throws roughly twice as many touchdown passes as interceptions, the AccuScore people think Leinart’s ratio will come in closer to even.



“Leinart’s inability to complete passes downfield has AccuScore forecasting a pass TD-to-INT ratio of just 20 to 16 despite completing 64.5 percent of his passes in 2010 simulations,” Oh said. “If Derek Anderson were to start, his completion percentage is well under 55 percent and he throws more interceptions than TD passes.”



The simulations showed the 2010 Cardinals winning the division title 76.1 percent of the time if Warner had not retired, with the 49ers winning 22.9 percent of the time. The Seahawks and Rams had virtually no chance with Warner part of the equation. Taking away Warner made San Francisco the division winner 73.5 percent of the time while opening the door slightly for Seattle as a dark horse candidate. The Rams’ chances also improved without Warner, although the simulator had them winning less than 1 percent of the time even with Warner retired.



You don’t need 10,000 simulations from AccuScore to realize Leinart will have to outperform prevailing expectations for the Cardinals to win a third consecutive division title.



“As a Ravens fan, I remember the 2007 game when Warner took over for Leinart at Baltimore,” Oh said. “It was obvious that not only was Warner vastly superior to Leinart skill-wise, he was a leader that the rest of the team respected.”



Warner completed 15 of 20 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns as the Cardinals turned a 23-6 deficit into a 23-23 tie before Baltimore finally prevailed on a field goal. Leinart finished the game 9-of-20 passing for 53 yards.



There is one caveat to the AccuScore projections. They have not yet been updated to reflect players added through the 2010 draft. The results will probably be somewhat similar in the NFC West unless Cardinals first-round nose tackle Dan Williams starts taking snaps from center.

Could the AFC playoffs feature three teams from the AFC East?



For the past three years, the AFC East hardly deserved to send multiple teams to the playoffs.



The AFC East arguably didn’t warrant extra inclusion in 2009 either. The New York Jets clinched a wild-card bid with massive assistance from their last two opponents, while other contenders withered into pretenders.



But this year is shaping up differently. The AFC East could send three teams into the postseason for the first time since 2001.



Anticipation already is building for what should be an ultra-competitive division shootout. The New England Patriots are defending champs. The Jets reached the AFC Championship Game. The Miami Dolphins won the AFC East in 2008 and were mathematically alive for a wild-card berth heading into Week 17 last year. They beat the Jets twice.



As respectable as those organizations were at the end of 2008, expectations have escalated. All three have improved their playoff chances through free agency, trades and the draft. ESPN.com senior writer John Clayton recently rated the most productive offseasons, and his Nos. 1 through 3 were the Patriots, Dolphins and Jets.



For eight straight seasons, the AFC East hasn’t acquitted itself well. It qualified a lone wild-card team in 2004, 2006 and 2009 (all the Jets), but none in the other seasons. Although it should be pointed out the Patriots had an 11-5 record two years ago, but failed to get in because they lost a tiebreaker to the Dolphins for the division crown and to the Baltimore Ravens for the second wild-card spot.



But in 2010, the AFC East’s strength of schedule is around the middle of the pack. The Patriots have the sixth-toughest schedule, but the Dolphins, Jets and Buffalo Bills are tied for 16th.



The AFC North has been shaky. Can anybody count on the Cincinnati Bengals to repeat as division champs? The Pittsburgh Steelers failed to make the playoffs at all last year and are experiencing serious turbulence with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.



The AFC West has been weak for a few seasons, producing one winning record over the past two seasons combined and two over the past three seasons.



We can pretty much pencil in the Indianapolis Colts to continue their AFC South dominance, but the other clubs have struggled off and on.



What makes the AFC South’s outlook even more daunting is the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans are tied for the most-difficult schedule based on their opponents’ aggregate 2009 records. The Jacksonville Jaguars own the fifth-toughest schedule. The Colts have the 10th.



Odds would appear decent multiple AFC East teams will make the tournament.

The Baltimore Ravens are a proven defensive juggernaut.



But can they be a legitimate offensive juggernaut, too? Thanks to some key additions, Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron believes it’s definitely possible.



“If we had our way, we’d like to lead the league in scoring and lead the league in ball security,” Cameron said in a telephone interview with ESPN.com’s AFC North blog. “I think being in the top five in that this year is realistic.”



If Cameron’s vision of an elite, high-scoring offense becomes a reality in Baltimore, the rest of the NFL has a major problem on its hands.



Few teams have the potential to be as stout on both sides of the football in 2010 as the Ravens.



The acquisition of three-time Pro Bowl receiver Anquan Boldin and the growth of third-year standouts Ray Rice and Joe Flacco have Baltimore’s offensive expectations at an all-time high. And the Ravens’ stellar track record on defense is well-documented: They’ve ranked in the top six defensively for 10 of the past 11 years.



But despite Baltimore’s consistent success, the franchise has struggled for years to win offensive shootouts. As recently as last season, teams like the Indianapolis Colts have given the Ravens fits because the opposing offense was good enough to put up points and the Ravens’ offense couldn’t keep pace.



This offseason, it was the goal of Baltimore’s front office to put together a roster that could win in a variety of ways, which includes high-scoring affairs if necessary.



“There are going to be times during a game where the defense has to carry the offense, just because you have those days. And vice versa, when the offense has to carry the defense,” Boldin told reporters during minicamp. “For me, I love to play with a great defense, because they get you the ball. As an offense, you want the ball as much as possible.”



There has been plenty of debate in Baltimore about whether Cameron can keep everyone happy this season. With the exception of Flacco, every starting offensive skill player for the Ravens has at least one Pro Bowl on his résumé. That means there’s plenty of talent but also plenty of egos to massage.



It was challenging enough in recent years to get adequate carries for Rice, Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain. Now the coaching staff has to worry about the running backs and an assortment of talented receivers and tight ends in the passing game.

(Read full post)

Peter King scored a rare and insightful offseason interview with New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady to lead off “Monday Morning Quarterback” at SI.com.



Brady came off as contemplative but unapologetic in discussing how family is pulling him away from the Patriots’ offseason program more than before.



Brady, who will turn 33 in August, has been a sporadic participant in the Patriots’ conditioning program thus far, choosing to spend more time with his two sons. Jack, whom Brady had with actress Bridget Moynihan, is 2. Benjamin, whom Brady had with wife, Gisele Bundchen, is five months.

“It’s a balancing act,” Brady told King. “I don’t want the next 10 years to go by and to say I wasn’t there for my sons. I wish I could be there [at Gillette Stadium over the offseason] the way I was when I was 24, but life is different now.”

Brady admitted that not being around as much isn’t ideal for team development.

“I’m not going to have the same relationship with the guys as if I was there every day,” Brady said. “I hope they can understand. I’ve seen it handled different ways by a lot of guys on the team in the past, including some of the real leaders. I’ve seen Willie McGinest and Rodney Harrison when their family lives turned in different directions and they couldn’t be in the offseason program every day. Ultimately, what it comes down to is this: We’ve all got to be ready to play.”

Brady touched on a variety of topics, but the most interesting quote to me was his take on whether the Patriots were a team on the rise or on the decline. They won the AFC East last year, but an embarrassing home loss to the Baltimore Ravens in the first round ended the Patriots’ campaign with a resounding thud.

“Our fans think just because we’re wearing the same jerseys, we’re the same team. And we’re not,” Brady said. “Teams change in this league every year, and ours is no exception. Last year was pretty disappointing in a lot of ways, obviously. Losing to Baltimore the way we lost in the playoffs, losing leads late, losing on the road. Every year is so different, and the way we approach this year will be extremely important. We need to see the toughness. We need to see the commitment. Can we take the coaching?”

He said he has been throwing passes to Wes Welker, but King said he declined to reveal any details about how Welker is recovering from surgeries to reattach his left knee and to mend a rotator cuff.



Brady also told King he’s high on young receivers Julian Edelman and Brandon Tate and liked the signing of old friend David Patten.



As for the New York Jets‘ offseason, here’s what Brady had to say:

“They’re always a team that gives us problems, and they’ve sure made a lot of changes this offseason. When your archrivals do as much as they’ve done, you’ve got to pay attention. They went to the conference championship game. They’ve got a great defense. They can run the ball as well as anyone, and they’ve got a great young quarterback who can make a lot of plays. Our whole division’s improved. To win the division, we’ll really have to earn it this year.”

Baltimore star linebacker Ray Lewis has taken issue with the way Florida quarterback Tim Tebow — whom Denver traded three picks to select at No. 25 — was given special help to prepare for the draft.



Lewis, while appearing on Colin Cowherd’s show on ESPN radio, said Tebow received pre-draft help few other prospects have enjoyed.



“The thing I was more shocked by, is you see all the people who were willing to help him,” Lewis responded. “I don’t know many people who were willing to help other athletes like that. Jon Gruden loved him to death. You see all these people who took out their personal time to really work with him and make this big issue, big issue, big issue. I don’t know why he was any different than anyone else. Every young child has that dream, that same dream that Tebow had. So I don’t know why he was bigger … than any of the other guys.



“He went to a big program, and, yes, he might be a favorable person, but nobody else in the league, definitely not veteran players, see themselves differently than any other player.



The Broncos visit Baltimore on Oct.10. Lewis indicated he plans to treat Tebow like any other quarterback.



“The target is always simple,” Lewis said. “You play this game for one reason. You play this game to find people’s weaknesses. If he is going to be a target … basically he plays the quarterback position, so, from my position, the target is just hit him in the mouth and keep rolling.”



Meanwhile, Denver coach Josh McDaniels continued to show his enthusiasm over the chance to coach Tebow. He told the Denver Post, Tebow has “it.”



“I think the thing about Tim is what everybody calls the ‘it’. There are those kind of people that have that ‘it,’” McDaniels said. “When Tom (Brady) came to us in 2001, I wasn’t on the offensive side of the ball, but I can remember the feeling in the building was that he had something that nobody else had … and how strongly he felt that ultimately he would be a great player. It was obviously apparent in subsequent seasons.”



What do I think about all of this?



I think Tebow is even a more polarizing figure that I had thought he was on the night he was drafted two weeks ago. It is going to be fascinating to see how his NFL career develops. It is clear the NFL world is watching.

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — The Buffalo Bills might have avoided drafting an offensive tackle within the first four rounds because they’re holding out hope of landing Jared Gaither from the Baltimore Ravens.



Trade rumors have been swirling around Gaither for months, and they intensified Friday when the Ravens moved emerging star Michael Oher from the right side to the left, formerly Gaither’s position.



ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports multiple league sources insist the Ravens will trade Gaither, and the Bills are the leading candidate to get him.



The Bills have been aggressively pursuing Gaither behind the scenes to shore up one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines. The Bills were forced to trade two-time Pro Bowl tackle Jason Peters last year and declined to bring in anybody to replace him, choosing instead to give 2008 seventh-round pick Demetrius Bell a try.



The gamble failed miserably. Bell was among the league leaders in penalties before a knee injury ended his season at eight games. If the Bills don’t bring in any help, Bell likely would return to the role with competition from fifth-round draft choice Ed Wang.

Baltimore Ravens second-year standout Michael Oher opened mandatory minicamp Friday getting work at left tackle. This was an interesting yet predictable move after Oher’s stellar rookie year, combined with Jared Gaither entering the final year of his contract and seeking a long-term extension.



The feeling in Baltimore is that the Ravens will let Gaither, last year’s left tackle, play out the final year of his deal, and there’s a chance he will walk as a free agent in 2011. There were plenty of trade rumors involving Gaither this offseason, but nothing came to fruition.



It is not known at this point if the switch between Oher and Gaither at offensive tackle is permanent or just an experiment. But at the very least it appears the Ravens are preparing for life without Gaither, just in case, by helping groom Oher for one of the NFL’s toughest positions.

As previously noted, Minnesota state legislators announced formal legislation Monday for a new Vikings stadium, one they hope will be approved during the final two weeks of this year’s session. According to a news release, it proposes a $791 million project — paid for by a combination of sports-themed lottery tickets; taxes on hotels, rental cars, jerseys; and a $264 million contribution from the Vikings/NFL.



The Vikings would also be responsible for any cost overruns, which seem likely considering the project was originally priced at anywhere between $870 million and $980 million.



Now starts the grimy political process of determining if enough state leaders will support the project. Already, a team spokesman has balked at the $264 million contribution; owner Zygi Wilf has previously capped his commitment to $215 million, including a loan from the NFL. But the bottom line is that the Vikings have two more years on their lease at the Metrodome, after which they will become franchise “free agents.”



Over on our Facebook page, Israel asks the most pertinent long-term question:

If the new Vikings stadium bill does not pass, what are the chances Mr. Wilf tries to sell the team? How would this affect any upcoming free agents such as Sidney Rice, Adrian Peterson, and Chad Greenway?

There are many people closely tracking the use of their tax money here, but Israel’s question cuts to what I think is the biggest issue.



I don’t think anything significant will happen immediately if the bill is rejected this year, other than the possibility of higher costs if the issue is re-considered next winter. But if it ultimately becomes clear that funding won’t be approved, I believe Wilf will give strong consideration to selling the team.



I don’t believe Wilf will move the team himself. My educated guess is that he isn’t interested in having his family name associated with the departure of a franchise the way “Irsay” is known in Baltimore and “Modell” in Cleveland. But selling to a new owner who wants to relocate would allow Wilf to escape that legacy.



If Wilf puts the team up for sale, I can tell you it’s generally not a good short-term sign for the franchise. Every situation is different, but in most sale situations, it doesn’t make sense to invest more than what is absolutely necessary to maintain the franchise value. Sure, the Vikings would be better off signing their star players to long-term contracts. But would it change the franchise value if they depart via free agency? In most cases, probably not.



Vikings fans witnessed that approach for three years under former owner Red McCombs. More recently, St. Louis hasn’t exactly broken the bank this winter while awaiting the conclusion of its sale process. The Rams will have to pay quarterback Sam Bradford what could be a record NFL contract, but the lack of negotiations thus far causes a cynic to wonder if current ownership is hoping to leave future ownership with the bill.



The Vikings are nowhere close to that point right now. But I think people in Minnesota are fooling themselves if they believe nothing will change if a stadium is indefinitely delayed.