Everyone wants their team to trade down.



I get more e-mails at this time of year asking me about the possibility of the Jaguars trading out of the No. 10 spot in the NFL draft in hopes of getting more. The same kinds of questions come from Titans fans hoping their team will opt out of selecting 16th overall. Texans fans (No. 20) and Colts followers (No. 31) aren’t averse to the idea of trading down, either.



So I am here to tell you, while trading up is often too expensive, trading down is often overrated.



For starters, to get down, you need a team that wants to move up.



“Sitting in the draft room for many years, I think those are conversations that always come up: ‘Well, wouldn’t it be nice to move back and pick up a couple other picks?’” Texans coach Gary Kubiak said. “Well in that 10 minutes or whatever you have before that pick, if you’re not a hot commodity at that time and nobody wants to talk to you, you better be ready to do business.



“I think it’s probably a hell of a lot easier said than done.”



Said Jacksonville GM Gene Smith in a recent conference call with season-ticket holders: “My mindset is to acquire picks. If we’re able to do that, I’ll have a smile on my face.”



But even if you have a lot of needs, like Smith, is that the right route?



Let’s look at the recent trade-down history of our four teams and then assess. We’re considering just picks-for-picks trades, not moves that include veteran players.



In the last six years, with the help of Jason Vida of ESPN Stats & Information and prosportstransactions.com, here are first-round trade-downs in the division.



Houston



2008 — Traded with Baltimore

Gave: No. 18 in first round (quarterback Joe Flacco)



Got: No. 26 pick in first round (offensive tackle Duane Brown), a third-round pick (86th overall, running back Steve Slaton) and a sixth-round pick (173rd overall, defensive back Dominique Barber)



Value chart says: Ravens, 900-883.2 points



Assessment: Baltimore got its quarterback and Flacco is clearly the most valuable player of all of these. The Texans got their left tackle (Brown), a skill player who’s had one great year and one terrible season (Slaton) and some shaky secondary depth (Barber).

2005 — Traded with New Orleans

Gave: No. 13 in first round (offensive tackle Jammal Brown)



Got: No. 16 in first round (defensive tackle Travis Johnson) and a third-round pick in 2006 (66th overall, offensive tackle Eric Winston)



Value chart: Texans, 1,260-1,150. (That link is to an NFL-style draft value chart like the ones teams use to measure trade values.)



Assessment: Brown has been a Pro Bowler twice and an All-Pro once. Johnson underachieved and was traded. Winston is a very solid starter, but the Saints got more bang here, I think.

Indianapolis



Sidenote: The Colts gave up their 2008 first-rounder and their 2007 fourth-rounder to get the 2007 second-rounder from San Francisco they used to draft offensive tackle Tony Ugoh. That can be classified in different ways. I see it more as the Colts going up to get Ugoh, so I don’t use it as a trade-down scenario here.



2004 –Traded with Atlanta

Gave: No. 29 in the first round (cornerback Michael Jenkins) and a third-round pick (90th overall, quarterback Matt Schaub)



Got: No. 38 in the second round (traded to Steelers for a second-round pick, 44th overall, Bob Sanders and fourth-round pick, 107th overall, linebacker Kendyll Pope), a third-round pick (69th overall, linebacker Gilbert Gardner), and a fourth-round pick (125th overall, cornerback Jason David)



Value chart says: Colts, 845-780



Assessment: A double-trade down netted the Colts Sanders. He may miss way too many games due to injuries, but he won a defensive player of the year award and keyed a Super Bowl team. Bur Schaub sure proved to have value for Atlanta when Houston came calling a couple years later.

Jacksonville

2007 — Traded with Denver



Gave: No. 17 in first round (defensive end Jarvis Moss)



Got: No. 21 in first round (safety Reggie Nelson); a third-round pick (86th overall, traded to Baltimore for a fourth-round pick, 101st overall , a fifth-round pick, 166th overall, and a sixth-round pick 203rd overall); and a sixth-round pick (198th overall, traded to Atlanta as part of package for a fifth-rounder, 149th overall, guard Uche Nwaneri). Punter Adam Podlesh and defensive tackle Derek Landri came out of that trade with Baltimore, with the 203rd pick also going to Atlanta in the trade that got Jacksonville Nwaneri



Value chart says: Jaguars 973.2-950 (not factoring in trades of other picks involved)



Assessment: They did OK, but if Nelson continues on his current course, we’ll remember them failing with another first-rounder.

Titans



2004 — Traded with Houston

Gave: No. 27 in the first round (defensive end/outside linebacker Jason Babin) and a fifth-round pick (159th overall, traded to Jacksonville)



Got: No. 40 in the second round (tight end Ben Troupe), a third-round pick (71st overall, defensive tackle Randy Starks), a fourth-round pick (103rd overall, defensive end Bo Schobel), and a fifth-round pick (138th overall, guard Jacob Bell)



Value chart says: Titans, 860-708.8



Assessment: On draft day, it looked like a monster win for Tennessee and in time, because Babin busted, it still leaned their way. But for the Titans, only Bell was a consistent performer. It’s easy to look back on drafts and play what if, I know, but what if the Titans or the Texans had used No. 27 on Sanders or Karlos Dansby or Chris Snee?

Conclusions:



Let’s emphasize this is not scientific and it’s not a very big sample size.



Still, these five deals produced just one player we’d rate as stellar, and Sanders has major injury issues. They also yielded AFC South teams a left tackle who still has to prove himself (Brown), a defensive tackle who busted (Johnson), a free safety whose second year was very poor (Nelson) and a tight end who’s out of the league (Troupe).



Trading down doesn’t always produce the yield everyone imagines. One very good player is better than a couple who rank a notch below. The chance at that player is typically better where you are, not lower than that.



So if the Jaguars see someone they like a lot at 10 or if the Titans see someone they like a lot at 16, they should jump, not dump.

Falling



Darren Sharper. The New Orleans safety is finding out the hard way what it’s like to be 34-years-old. Despite a huge season, he doesn’t seem to be drawing a lot of attention in free agency. He also has made some comments about the Saints not showing him enough “love” (money) in their talks about bringing him back. Both sides say they want Sharper to return to New Orleans, but it’s only going to come at a price the Saints think is reasonable. They’ve got Malcolm Jenkins, last year’s first-round pick, sitting around. He spent his rookie year at cornerback, but the Saints are set there. Jenkins has the size and skills to play safety and the Saints have said, since the day he was drafted, that he eventually could end up at safety. That time might be coming sooner than we thought.



Rising



Atlanta’s defense. Look around the NFC South and ask yourself how many teams truly have gotten better in the first week of free agency. Forget your allegiances and be honest. The only answer is the Falcons. Although the Saints, Panthers and Buccaneers may end up improving themselves, all they’ve done so far is lose their own free agents and cut some prominent players. The Falcons are the only team that, right now, is better than they were at the end of the season. That’s largely because they went out and spent a fortune on cornerback Dunta Robinson and also re-signed cornerback Brian Williams, who was hurt — and sorely missed — the second half of last season. That suddenly solidifies the cornerback spot, which was a major problem area. The Falcons also have last year’s top two picks, defensive tackle Peria Jerry and safety William Moore, coming back from injuries. Throw all those guys on the field and add a defensive end somewhere in the draft and Atlanta suddenly looks like a strong playoff contender.

Each Wednesday leading up to the NFL draft (April 22-24), the ESPN.com blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today’s topic: Recent history.



Houston Texans



The best move the Texans made in the past three seasons was trading a second-round pick in 2007 and 2008 to Atlanta for Matt Schaub, a quarterback who’s the key to their offense and team. With so many teams in need of a quality starter, that trade seems like a steal now. They’ve taken four defensive backs with the 10 picks they’ve made in the fifth round or later, and out of Brandon Harrison, Dominique Barber, Brice McCain and Troy Nolan they’ve not found a guy who has been able to contribute consistently. It’s time to spend a big pick on a free safety or corner who has great ball skills.



Indianapolis Colts



Skill positions get attention early, with receiver Anthony Gonzalez and running back Donald Brown grabbed with the two first-rounders in the past three years. The hits in the third round and later have become significant players: Clint Session, Pierre Garcon, Jerraud Powers, Austin Collie, Pat McAfee. Trouble spot? Look to the five offensive linemen who haven’t really panned out. That’s understandable with Steve Justice (sixth in 2008), Jamey Richard (seventh in 2008) and Jaimie Thomas (seventh in 2009), but Tony Ugoh (second in 2007) and Mike Pollak (second in 2008) have left the team with holes and problems that need to be addressed in April. Out of five picks there has to be at least one starter, probably two.



Jacksonville Jaguars



Two first-round picks out of Florida have not met expectations, but the Jaguars still hope safety Reggie Nelson and defensive end Derrick Harvey can become consistent players. Of 25 picks, only one is established as a playmaker on offense, Mike Sims-Walker (third-rounder in 2007). That’s a big part of the reason the team’s not especially potent on offense beyond Maurice Jones-Drew. The top four from the 2009 draft got significant starting experience as rookies, and the 2010 class will have similar opportunities. While Harvey can be steady, he’s not an explosive pass-rusher, and Quentin Groves has struggled. Even with Aaron Kampman signed, they still need another pass-rusher.



Tennessee Titans



The Titans have fared nicely with pass-rushers from lesser-known schools — William Hayes of Winston-Salem State is on the brink of big things and Jacob Ford of Central Arkansas is a skilled rusher. Contributions from second-rounders have been minimal — Chris Henry is already gone, Jason Jones hasn’t stayed healthy or consistent and Sen’Derrick Marks had no impact as a rookie. After hitting a home run with seventh-rounder Cortland Finnegan in 2006, late-round corners Ryan Smith, Cary Williams and, so far, Jason McCourty, haven’t panned out. A quality corner is a need early in this draft.

Each Wednesday leading up to the NFL draft (April 22-24), the ESPN.com blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today’s topic: Recent history.



Atlanta Falcons



In general manager Thomas Dimitroff’s first draft in 2008, the Falcons went almost exclusively with offense, mainly because they wanted to build around quarterback Matt Ryan and left tackle Sam Baker. That draft was a huge success and it helped the Falcons build a solid offensive core. Last year, Dimitroff switched over almost entirely to defense. The jury is still out on that class because defensive tackle Peria Jerry and safety William Moore missed almost all of their rookie seasons with injuries. But both will be back and will fill defensive needs. The products of the last two drafts mean the Falcons are now in a situation in which they can go any way they want. Dimitroff doesn’t mess around and talk about “the best player available.” He admits the Falcons draft on need. They’ve narrowed their needs this year. Although defensive end and linebacker currently top that list, the Falcons no longer need to spend the whole draft on one side of the ball.



Carolina Panthers



In recent years, the Panthers have been very daring in the draft. Two years ago, they traded back up into the first round to get tackle Jeff Otah, after already landing running back Jonathan Stewart. That cost them a 2009 first-round pick, but they still traded up in last year’s second round to get defensive end Everette Brown. That cost them this year’s first-round pick and they won’t be picking until the second round — at least as of now. The last couple of years have shown general manager Marty Hurney is willing to take big chances. After an offseason purge of veterans, the Panthers suddenly have a lot of needs all over the place. Hurney’s demonstrated a recent willingness to trade up and that certainly could come in handy this year. But the problem is the Panthers don’t have a lot of currency to move up.



New Orleans Saints



Mickey Loomis is another general manager who doesn’t try to make you believe he’s only looking for the best player available. Recent history has shown Loomis makes sure he gets what his team needs, even when it’s not always the most popular pick. Take last year’s trade up in the fifth round to get punter Thomas Morstead. Fans griped, right up until Morstead began having one of the best rookie years ever by a punter. The last two first-round picks, Sedrick Ellis and Malcolm Jenkins, were made based solely on need. Loomis had his hands tied last year with only four draft picks, mainly because of the trades he made for Jeremy Shockey and Jonathan Vilma and two draft choices were injured before the season ever started. Loomis has a pretty full complement of picks this year and, although the Saints are the champions, they still have needs. Nothing major, but last year showed the importance of depth and Loomis will make sure the Saints add depth in their areas of need.



Tampa Bay Buccaneers



We’re talking about two different regimes here. Mark Dominik and Raheem Morris took over last year and Bruce Allen and Jon Gruden were calling the shots before that. These two regimes demonstrated two very different styles. Allen and Gruden were all about winning now and they did plenty of patchwork with veterans and didn’t have great drafts. Gaines Adams, the top pick in 2007, didn’t work out, but 2008 first-round choice Aqib Talib has shown promise. Allen and Gruden also left their successors with a bunch of young offensive linemen, although that group was a little disappointing. Dominik and Morris value the draft more highly than their predecessors and they’re proud of the fact they’ve accumulated 10 picks for this year. They believe in building through the draft and they started that process last year by getting Josh Freeman who they believe is a franchise quarterback. He’s in place and the challenge now is to build around him.

A new Tuesday feature on the ESPN.com NFL blog network.



Can the Falcons play some real defense?



In Mike Smith’s two years as coach, the Falcons have put together back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in franchise history. But the amazing thing is that Smith, a coach with a defensive background, has done it without a very good defense, which is something any team needs to compete with New Orleans in the NFC South.



The Falcons are well aware of this and they’re doing something about it. They went out and made their big splash in free agency by signing cornerback Dunta Robinson and re-signing cornerback Brian Williams. They also dumped Chris Houston, whom they never felt was very aggressive, in a trade with Detroit.



On paper, Robinson and Williams should be the starters. But the Falcons are also high on young corners Chris Owens, Brent Grimes and Chevis Jackson, and they’ll all be in the mix. Pretty amazing how proactive the Falcons have been at cornerback, especially when you consider Atlanta officials got a little sensitive when media members criticized the team’s cornerback play last season.



Those officials repeatedly said the main reason the cornerbacks were struggling was because the pass rush wasn’t producing like they had hoped. Take that as a very strong sign the Falcons aren’t done touching up their defense.



They’ll tell you that defensive tackle Peria Jerry, who is coming back from an injury that kept him out most of his rookie season, will be back. Jerry can create a push in the middle and that’s going to help John Abraham and Kroy Biermann be more productive on the outside. But, if the Falcons were this aggressive at addressing cornerback, you have to think they’re not done at defensive end.



They’ve got the draft and what’s left of free agency, and their focus is going to be on building up the pass rush. It’s all they’re really lacking right now. They’re solid at cornerback, linebacker and in the middle of the defensive line.



Give them a pass-rusher and Smith might finally be able to really play the kind of defense he wants; the kind of defense that could make the Falcons a legitimate challenger to the Saints.

We’ve detailed Detroit’s effort to revamp its defensive line. Monday, they ramped up their efforts to rebuild their cornerback position.



In addition to signing free agent Jonathan Wade, the Lions acquired Chris Houston from Atlanta in a trade we touched on Sunday evening. The Lions gave up a sixth-round pick for Houston and will swap fifth-round picks with the Falcons as well.



At this early date, I would consider Houston a likely starter while Spencer would be in the mix for the nickel and dime positions. That still leaves at least one starting position left to fill after the release of Philip Buchanon last week. Two other cornerbacks from last season, Will James and Anthony Henry, are free agents.



Houston ultimately was expendable because the Falcons signed Dunta Robinson to replace him. FOB (Friend of the Blog) Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders, who tracks the career arcs of NFL players, suggested Monday night that the Lions got a steal:



Let’s see… Detroit’s secondary has been Edsel-riffic for two years now. Chris Houston was a second-round pick just three years ago. Highly-drafted cornerbacks often take three or even four years to develop. Rashean Mathis and Corey Webster broke out in season four; Nnamdi Asomugha never intercepted a pass until season four. And to take a gamble on Houston’s talent finally emerging, all the Lions have to do is give up a sixth-round pick and switch places with Atlanta in the fifth round? Uh, yeah, that works.

Leigh Bodden’s agent is telling everybody “Don’t believe the type.”



Bodden has not re-signed with the New England Patriots.



“Reports of Leigh Bodden re-signing with the Patriots are not true and premature at best,” Bodden’s agent, Alvin Keels, tweeted Monday night. “Leigh is still evaluating his options.”



Well, fine.



But multiple outlets report Bodden and the Patriots have agreed in principle on a new contract that will keep him in Foxborough after an effective season as the club’s right cornerback.



Bodden made like Ryan Clark, flirting with another team before returning home. Bodden visited the Houston Texans on Monday. Clark spent the day with the Miami Dolphins but re-signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers.



In other Patriots news:

• Four-time Pro Bowl tight end Alge Crumpler and defensive end Marques Murrell visited Gillette Stadium on Monday. Crumpler, a star when he played for the Atlanta Falcons, caught just 27 passes for 222 yards and one touchdown with the Tennessee Titans last year. Murrell played in 10 games with zero starts for the New York Jets.
• Patriots free-agent defensive end Jarvis Green will make a free-agent visit to the Denver Broncos on Tuesday.
• Tight end Benjamin Watson, who scheduled a visit with the Seattle Seahawks on Monday, will swing by the Cleveland Browns on Wednesday.

D. Orlando Ledbetter reports the much-anticipated trade of Atlanta cornerback Chris Houston to Detroit has finally happened.



The Falcons get a sixth-round pick in return. The deal also includes the two teams swapping picks in the fifth round. Atlanta now has the second pick in the fifth round and Detroit will take the 18th pick in the fifth round.



Houston became expendable after the Falcons signed Dunta Robinson and re-signed Brian Williams. They also have Christopher Owens, Brent Grimes and Chevis Jackson at cornerback.

On the same day the Atlanta Falcons are going to introduce a new cornerback, it looks like they might be saying farewell to an old cornerback.



There are numerous reports out there that the Falcons are working on trading Chris Houston to Detroit. The reports are all over the board in terms of compensation, but look for the Falcons to come out of this one holding anything from a fourth-round pick to a sixth-round pick.



Whatever they can get for Houston will be fine. He’s a guy who has always had some ability, but is not a very aggressive player, which has prevented Houston from endearing himself to the coaching staff. He became expendable after the Falcons agreed to a contract with Dunta Robinson, who will be introduced officially at a news conference Monday afternoon.



Robinson instantly becomes Atlanta’s No. 1 cornerback, and the recent re-signing of Brian Williams probably makes him the other starter. But the Falcons also will let Brent Grimes, Christopher Owens and Chevis Jackson challenge for that job in training camp.



That gives them plenty of depth at cornerback, and getting a draft pick — any draft pick — for Houston makes sense for a team that probably is just about done in free agency and will now focus on the draft.

The euphoria of Detroit’s early-market success in free agency masked one glaring shortcoming: Cornerback. None of the Lions’ top three cornerbacks from 2009 are under contract after the release of Phillip Buchanon, and it wasn’t clear how the team was expecting to replace him or free agents Will James and Anthony Henry.



Those plans began to take shape Sunday night. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports the Lions are on the verge of acquiring cornerback Chris Houston from Atlanta, while multiple reports indicate free agent Jonathan Wade will visit the Lions on Monday. Wade played three seasons in St. Louis but was not tendered a contract.



We know the Lions had discussions about acquiring Antonio Cromartie from San Diego, and Schefter reports they also expressed interest in free agent Dunta Robinson, who eventually signed in Atlanta. I would expect the position to be a continuous focal point throughout the season.