They don’t crown NFL division champs before December or January, but we do — time and again.



The subject appeared tapped out pending additional offseason developments until ESPN.com teammate Kevin Seifert put together an NFC North prediction item that caught my prognosticating eye. Seifert consulted AccuScore projections showing what might happen if NFC North teams played out 10,000 repetitions of their 2010 schedules — with and without Brett Favre quarterbacking the Vikings.



“Using 10,000 such simulated seasons last year,” Seifert reported, “AccuScore correctly predicted the NFC North’s final standings. This year, AccuScore is picking Minnesota to win the division if Favre returns and the Packers if he doesn’t.”



That was interesting enough for me to ask AccuScore’s Stephen Oh to run similar projections for the NFC West — with and without Kurt Warner. But first I wanted to know Accuscore’s track record with the Cardinals coming off their Super Bowl appearance.



“Despite the Super Bowl hangover jinx,” Oh replied, “AccuScore’s 2009 season forecast gave Arizona the second-best chance of winning its division behind San Diego in the AFC West.”



Sure enough, the Cardinals posted a 10-6 record to win another division title.



The system is only as good as the variables used to value players and teams. As Seifert explained, “AccuScore people develop variables to create digital profiles for NFL coaches and players. Those profiles are used to create ‘teams’ that are then run through a computer simulation to play out a ’season’ based on each team’s actual NFL schedule.”



AccuScore played the NFC West season 10,000 times, first with Warner and then without him.



The Cardinals went from averaging 10.8 victories with Warner to 7.2 victories without him, making Warner worth 3.6 victories per season relative to backup Matt Leinart. While Warner throws roughly twice as many touchdown passes as interceptions, the AccuScore people think Leinart’s ratio will come in closer to even.



“Leinart’s inability to complete passes downfield has AccuScore forecasting a pass TD-to-INT ratio of just 20 to 16 despite completing 64.5 percent of his passes in 2010 simulations,” Oh said. “If Derek Anderson were to start, his completion percentage is well under 55 percent and he throws more interceptions than TD passes.”



The simulations showed the 2010 Cardinals winning the division title 76.1 percent of the time if Warner had not retired, with the 49ers winning 22.9 percent of the time. The Seahawks and Rams had virtually no chance with Warner part of the equation. Taking away Warner made San Francisco the division winner 73.5 percent of the time while opening the door slightly for Seattle as a dark horse candidate. The Rams’ chances also improved without Warner, although the simulator had them winning less than 1 percent of the time even with Warner retired.



You don’t need 10,000 simulations from AccuScore to realize Leinart will have to outperform prevailing expectations for the Cardinals to win a third consecutive division title.



“As a Ravens fan, I remember the 2007 game when Warner took over for Leinart at Baltimore,” Oh said. “It was obvious that not only was Warner vastly superior to Leinart skill-wise, he was a leader that the rest of the team respected.”



Warner completed 15 of 20 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns as the Cardinals turned a 23-6 deficit into a 23-23 tie before Baltimore finally prevailed on a field goal. Leinart finished the game 9-of-20 passing for 53 yards.



There is one caveat to the AccuScore projections. They have not yet been updated to reflect players added through the 2010 draft. The results will probably be somewhat similar in the NFC West unless Cardinals first-round nose tackle Dan Williams starts taking snaps from center.

NFC West teams have acquired 10 veteran players by trade this offseason. Which one will have the greatest impact in 2010?



Let’s define impact first.



Cardinals safety Kerry Rhodes, acquired from the Jets, has the best chance to finish the 2010 season with the most snaps played among players acquired by NFC West teams. He’ll start and presumably be an every-down player on defense.



Seahawks running back Leon Washington and 49ers receiver Ted Ginn Jr. have the best chance to make an electrifying play or two, perhaps swinging a game in their team’s favor. Washington first must overcome a broken leg. Ginn scored two touchdowns on kickoff returns for the Dolphins last season. He had a 53-yard TD reception last season and a 40-yard scoring run in 2008.



Charlie Whitehurst, the quarterback Seattle acquired from San Diego, could make the greatest impact — positive or negative — based on the nature of his position. Early returns suggest Matt Hasselbeck will hold off Whitehurst for the starting job, but injuries have slowed Hasselbeck over the past two seasons. If Hasselbeck is banged up again, the Seahawks will presumably turn to Whitehurst.



A quick look at the veteran players NFC West teams have added and subtracted this offseason:

Arizona: added Rhodes; subtracted receiver Anquan Boldin.



St. Louis: added linebacker Bobby Carpenter and safety Kevin Payne; subtracted tackle Alex Barron and defensive lineman Adam Carriker.



49ers: added Ginn; subtracted quarterback Shaun Hill.



Seahawks: added Whitehurst, Washington, running back LenDale White, defensive end Chris Clemons, defensive tackle Kevin Vickerson and defensive end Robert Henderson; subtracted guard Rob Sims, defensive end Darryl Tapp and quarterback Seneca Wallace.

Seattle has been the busiest NFC West team in the trade market this offseason. I think that is because the Seahawks are the only team in the division with a new coaching staff and new general manager. They wanted to shake up the roster.

Should an NFC North rookie replace the suspended Brian Cushing to win the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year award?



Cushing, the Houston linebacker who violated the league’s steroid policy last fall, remains on the ballot for an unprecedented re-vote set to be completed Wednesday. As we noted Monday, Green Bay linebacker Clay Matthews finished third in the original balloting and could benefit from those who withdraw their support from Cushing. After all, only 10 players finished the 2009 season with more than Matthews’ 10 sacks, which was also a Packers rookie record.



But there is another Black and Blue player who deserves to be in the discussion, and I wonder if at least a few voters will take this opportunity to re-focus their views on Detroit safety Louis Delmas.



Delmas didn’t receive a vote in the original balloting, and it’s difficult for anyone to get national recognition while playing for a defense that performed as poorly as the Lions’ last season. But don’t forget that Delmas became the first rookie in NFL history to record a safety as well as fumble and interception returns for touchdowns. His 101-yard return of an interception against Arizona, moreover, was the longest by an NFL rookie since 1926. That’s the definition of a playmaking safety.



We’re really in uncharted territory here. This vote isn’t as simple as re-shuffling the original deck. The balloting usually happens in the final days of the regular season. Delmas’ reputation has grown since then, and whether they admit or not, voters now have an entire offseason’s worth of analysis to work from. They also have the comments of people like Lions coach Jim Schwartz, who in February called Delmas the Lions’ best defensive player.



I don’t think Delmas will win the award, and he might not get a vote. But if nothing else, this instance provides an opportunity to remind everyone of his historic rookie season.

The Dolphins traded 2007 first-round choice Ted Ginn Jr. to the 49ers for little in return.

Carpenter

Barron

Miami seemed anxious to dump him.



The Rams and Cowboys are making similar moves by swapping 2005 first-round tackle Alex Barron for 2006 first-round linebacker Bobby Carpenter. Both players had worn out their welcomes.



The move makes sense for St. Louis on one level because Barron doesn’t fit into the team’s long-term plans, and he would have left after the 2010 season anyway. Might as well get something in return. Barron should have more value to the Cowboys than he would to the Rams because Dallas has shown an ability to piece together an effective offensive line using unwanted parts. Tackle Marc Colombo, disappointing as a first-round pick in Chicago, became a starter for the Cowboys. Guard Leonard Davis, disappointing as a first-round pick in Arizona, has gone to three Pro Bowls in three seasons since signing with the Cowboys.



What will the Cowboys get out of Barron?



“I think the bigger question is how will an organization like the Rams get more out of Bobby Carpenter than a franchise like the Cowboys were able to?” tre_fizzle responded to the question above.



Good question. I haven’t watched Carpenter play much NFL linebacker because Carpenter hasn’t been a regular starter. He owns three starts in four NFL seasons.



“I don’t see what St. Louis got out of the trade,” Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. said during a phone conversation Monday. “Carpenter has been a complete bust. He feels like a linebacker without a position. He almost looks like a 3-4 outside linebacker. He was a good pass-rusher at Ohio State, but he is too stiff to be a true edge rusher and too stiff to be a 4-3 outside linebacker. I understand he is a former first-round pick, but I haven’t seen anything in the NFL that makes me think he can play linebacker.”



Williamson sees this as a “great” trade for the Cowboys.



“I was with the Browns and I was in on interviews with Barron (coming out of college),” Williamson said. “He is not a self-starter. I can see why his act would get old. Getting out of St. Louis could do him a lot of good. Barron has legitimate first-round talent, he plays both tackle spots and the bottom line is he plays a much more demanding position. I just don’t think you got anything back for the guy. I think Dallas became a much better football team and St. Louis became a slightly worse football team.”

While every NFC West team can legitimately claim to having a successful offseason on some level, I can see why ESPN’s John Clayton ranked the Seahawks’ offseason as the NFL’s fifth best to this point.



Seattle was dealt a strong offseason hand — two of the top 14 picks in the 2010 draft — and the team generally made the most of it.



My quick take on NFC West offseasons to this point:



Arizona Cardinals



What went right: Nose tackle Dan Williams fell to Arizona at No. 26 in the draft. … Nine-time Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca, a player the team had coveted, suddenly became available. The Cardinals were able to sign him at an affordable price. … The team got value for receiver Anquan Boldin a year before Boldin likely would have left anyway. … Darnell Dockett reported for the post-draft camp and participated, an indication he feels the team is closer to rewarding him with a long-term deal. … The team extended contracts for coach Ken Whisenhunt and general manager Rod Graves, buying continuity.



What went wrong: Kurt Warner retired. … A poorly structured contract allowed safety Antrel Rolle to get away after the first Pro Bowl season of his career. … Linebacker Karlos Dansby signed with the Dolphins even though the Cardinals’ offer was competitive. … The Rams released Marc Bulger late enough to make it tough for the Cardinals to consider adding a player they might have otherwise signed. … Losing Warner and Boldin deprived the team of established leadership.



The bottom line: There wasn’t much Arizona could do about Warner’s retirement, but that subtraction — followed by the departures of Rolle, Dansby and Boldin — put the team in a tough situation. The Cardinals rebounded, adding safety Kerry Rhodes, outside linebacker Joey Porter, Faneca, guard Rex Hadnot and linebacker Paris Lenon in free agency. They felt great about landing Williams in the first round of the draft, and they had a fallback plan when talks with kicker Neil Rackers went nowhere. Those moves allowed Arizona to feel better about a tough offseason.



San Francisco 49ers



What went right: The 49ers addressed obvious issues on the offensive line through the draft. … Mike Solari, the perfect line coach for offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye, suddenly became available when the Seahawks fired Jim Mora after only one season. Solari is among the best in the game and he worked with Raye previously. … The team found a way to extend Patrick Willis‘ contract despite hurdles put in place by the NFL labor situation. … The Dolphins’ acquisition of Brandon Marshall made Ted Ginn Jr. expendable in Miami, furnishing the 49ers with an option for their return game and possibly at receiver. … Director of player personnel Trent Baalke, thrust into a more prominent role shortly before the draft, appeared to be a good match for coach Mike Singletary. The two had developed a rapport over the years when Singletary was a position coach, and that paid off immediately.



What went wrong: General manager Scot McCloughan left the team for personal reasons only five weeks before the draft. … Willis required knee surgery to remove a bursa sac. … Depending on your view of Donovan McNabb, the 49ers arguably missed a chance to add a quarterback capable of putting the team over the top. … Linebacker Manny Lawson stayed away from minicamps and offseason workouts because he wants a new contract.



The bottom line: The paragraph on what went right vastly outweighs the paragraph on what went wrong. The 49ers must have had a pretty good offseason, then. They stayed the course through McCloughan’s departure. On the field, they made continuity a high priority. They re-signed Willis and stood by quarterback Alex Smith. The decision at quarterback will largely determine whether the 49ers truly enjoyed a successful offseason, but no matter what happens, their reasoning was understandable. Smith made strides last season and the team was finally in position to keep the same quarterback and offensive coordinator together in consecutive years.



Seattle Seahawks



What went right: The draft fell favorably for Seattle, allowing the team to land left tackle Russell Okung and safety Earl Thomas in the first round. Getting Golden Tate in the second round seemed like a bonus. … New coach Pete Carroll and new general manager John Schneider have so far worked well together. Their rapport appears uncannily strong. … Carroll was able to land highly regarded assistant coaches, including Alex Gibbs. … The team added depth at running back without giving up much. Leon Washington has the potential to add a needed element to the offense … First-round bust Mike Williams showed promise during minicamps. … Cornerback Marcus Trufant appeared healthy again.



What went wrong: The team felt compelled to hire its third head coach in less than two years. … Age and injuries forced Walter Jones and Patrick Kerney into retirement. … It’s too early to say whether Seattle erred in adding Charlie Whitehurst, but the team arguably overspent for an untested backup quarterback. The move later prevented the Seahawks from considering Jimmy Clausen in the second round. … Linebacker Leroy Hill suffered additional off-field problems, reducing his value to the Seahawks or any team looking to add a linebacker via trade. … Seattle struck out in its efforts to land Marshall from the Broncos. … Receiver Deion Branch needed another knee surgery, albeit a minor one.



The bottom line: Seattle moved aggressively to shore up weaknesses from the front office to the playing field. That’s what it takes to be perceived as having a successful offseason. We should remember, however, that the Seahawks spent quite a bit of the offseason subtracting from their roster. Teams that change coaches and GMs will have roster turnover, but are the Seahawks better in the immediate term without Nate Burleson, Deon Grant, Darryl Tapp, Cory Redding, Rob Sims and even Seneca Wallace? Change comes at a price.



St. Louis Rams



What went right: The Rams had to get a quarterback and they got one in Sam Bradford. … Bradford’s shoulder checked out well enough during the offseason for the Rams to consider drafting him. … Minority owner Stan Kroenke, a man with deep pockets and a strong track record in sports team ownership, declared his intention to keep the team in St. Louis after exercising an option to buy the franchise. … The Rams maintained continuity of the coaching staff on offense, defense and special teams after years of turnover. Continuity was needed. … The Rams needed veteran seasoning and they got it by adding veterans familiar with their systems. Fred Robbins, Na’il Diggs, Hank Fraley and A.J. Feeley should help even if they do not start.



What went wrong: The Rams’ best player, Steven Jackson, underwent back surgery when rehabilitation alone wasn’t enough to recover from a herniated disk. … Safety Oshiomogho Atogwe’s injury situation combined with two other factors — a pending ownership change and new rules governing free agency — to complicate the Rams’ efforts to retain their former franchise player. Atogwe can become a free agent next month if the Rams do not increase their offer to him from $1.226 million to nearly $7 million. … Ownership uncertainty made it harder for the Rams to act decisively throughout the offseason. The Rams’ offseason budget lacked the flexibility it would have otherwise had. Should the team have made a play for Marshall or another big-name free agent? The Rams’ hands appeared somewhat tied.



The bottom line: The Rams put in place building blocks for their future, starting at quarterback. Their offseason will be judged almost entirely on whether Bradford becomes the player the Rams thought they were getting. Simple as that.

There is little chance JaMarcus Russell will be claimed off waivers because of his large salary. However, I bet some team gives him another chance at some point.



He is only 24 and he has a great arm. NFL coaches are very arrogant. They think they can make players stars. So, some team will likely give Russell the league minimum salary and another chance.



With the help of my fellow bloggers, here is a list of some teams that could take a look at Russell.



Arizona: The Cardinals aren’t exactly set at quarterback.



Buffalo: The Bills have a need for someone who can help now. That’s not Russell.



Chicago: Bears’ offensive coordinator Mike Martz loves big arms. But the Bears would likely want a more experienced backup.



Cincinnati: The Bengals could use a backup and they aren’t afraid of adding anyone.



Minnesota: If Brett Favre doesn’t come back, there could be a need there.



New Orleans: Maybe Sean Payton and a return to Louisiana could spark his career.



Philadelphia: The Eagles aren’t scared of bringing in quarterbacks.



San Francisco: The 49ers could use another arm, but not sure how this would fly in the Bay Area. Raiders’ fans would love it.



Washington: Mike Shanahan would probably love to stick it to Al Davis and make something out of Russell.

Patrick Willis‘ contract extension with the 49ers leaves the NFC West with four 2010 Pro Bowl players headed toward potential free agency after the 2010 or 2011 seasons.



A quick look at their situations:

• Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals. Deal expires after the 2011 season. Fitzgerald is already earning $10 million per year as part of the deal he signed before the 2008 season. It’s easy to forget Fitzgerald’s contract situation because the final year of his deal, 2012, is a voidable year. The deal also contains a no-trade clause while preventing the Cardinals from naming Fitzgerald their franchise or transition player. Arizona might be wise to get something done with Fitzgerald before the 2011 season.
• Darnell Dockett, DE, Cardinals. Deal expires after the 2011 season. Dockett’s contract pays him $7.75 million over the next two seasons. While Dockett plays end in the Cardinals’ 3-4 scheme, the NFL considers him a defensive tackle, as reflected in Pro Bowl balloting. The distinction could come into play if the Cardinals decide to name Dockett their franchise player. The sense I get dovetails with the one Darren Urban of azcardinals.com described. Dockett should get a long-term deal as long as he keeps playing at a high level.
• Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers. Deal expires after the 2010 season. Davis became a first-team Pro Bowl choice last season when the 49ers made him a bigger part of the passing game. Davis has always been a hard worker. He has shown greater self-control on the field. The franchise-player value for tight ends would secure Davis at a relative bargain price if the 49ers cannot work out a long-term deal. The team has been proactive in extending contracts for its best young players, however.
• Frank Gore, RB, 49ers. Deal expires after the 2011 season. Gore will be 29 years old heading into the 2012 season. Running backs tend to wind down around age 30. A long-term extension for Gore well past age 30 wouldn’t make much sense.

The 49ers’ Dashon Goldson is among a group of less-accomplished rising starters approaching contract years. More on that group at another time.

PITTSBURGH — A look around the Steelers’ locker room during their veteran minicamp last weekend brought back a nostalgic feel.



Dynamic safety Troy Polamalu, who was sidelined for 11 games in 2009, was in one corner after returning to practice.



Not too far from Polamalu was cornerback Bryant McFadden, who was laughing and catching up with teammates after spending a year with the Arizona Cardinals.



Defensive end Aaron Smith — showing no ill effects from a season-ending shoulder injury — was at the opposite end of the locker room tutoring second-year player Ziggy Hood. And veteran linebacker Larry Foote gave interviews at his locker saying how happy he was to return to Pittsburgh after spending last season with the Detroit Lions.



These were all welcome sights for the Steelers’ defense that you didn’t see last season.



Injuries, defections and blown fourth-quarter leads took the shine off Pittsburgh’s proud and talented unit in 2009. Despite a No. 5 overall ranking, the Steelers’ defense just didn’t look the same last year as Pittsburgh missed the playoffs for the first time in coach Mike Tomlin’s tenure.



And with franchise quarterback Ben Roethlisberger serving a conditional six-game suspension this season, the latest version of the “Steel Curtain” will need to be super again.



Before dropping several notches last year, Pittsburgh’s defense led the NFL in total yards and points allowed in 2008 on its way to the team’s sixth Super Bowl title.



“There’s no question that we have the ingredients and the talent to do that,” Polamalu said of Pittsburgh’s defense getting back on top. “It is whether or not we can maintain the focus that can last throughout the year and stay healthy.”



Health hit Pittsburgh’s defense in key areas last season.



Polamalu suffered a left-knee injury in the opening game against the Tennessee Titans and never quite recovered. He played in four more games but re-injured the knee. The Steelers’ defense missed the big-play element that Polamalu brings, particularly in the fourth quarter to close out games.



Smith, who has been Pittsburgh’s most consistent defensive end for the past decade, missed 11 games after shoulder surgery. Defensive starters Lawrence Timmons (ankle) and Brett Keisel (neck stinger) also missed three combined games for the Steelers.



Because Polamalu is the team’s best defender, his injury is most often cited as the reason for Pittsburgh’s struggles. But players believe it was a collection of occurrences.



“We just had a lot of injuries,” Pro Bowl linebacker LaMarr Woodley said. “With everyone on the field, everybody is part of the defense. So we can’t just look at [Polamalu] and say without one man out there our defense breaks down.”



Everyone in Pittsburgh is healthy again and hoping for better luck in that department.



In addition to getting healthy, the Steelers added depth by bringing back veterans McFadden and Foote. Both were starters for the Steelers during their last title run two years ago.



“It’s the same old Dick LeBeau defense, and I feel comfortable,” Foote said. “It’s like I never left.”



While Foote’s role is a work in progress, it appears McFadden has the inside track to start at cornerback opposite Ike Taylor. McFadden practiced with the first-team defense during veteran minicamp.



The Steelers believed William Gay was ready to step up last year as the starting cornerback, so the team let McFadden go and he got a more lucrative offer from Arizona. After Gay struggled for one season, the Steelers reacquired McFadden in a draft-day trade and gave him a contract extension that runs through 2012.



“Things worked out that I got an opportunity to come back here,” said a happy McFadden. “It’s good knowing that you have the opportunity to be in a successful defense and making plays. It feels very good to be a part of that and also to have the surrounding guys here.”



Even before Roethlisberger’s suspension, the team wanted to get back to the dominant, smashmouth style that made the Steelers successful. So expect a lot of running and trying to win with field position early in the season.



Luckily for the Steelers, they won’t face any opponents during Roethlisberger’s suspension that were ranked in the top 10 offensively last year. The Titans, who will meet Pittsburgh in Week 2, had the highest-rated offense of the first six opponents at No. 12.



Pittsburgh’s quarterback situation remains undecided. Byron Leftwich received the first-team reps with the Steelers in minicamp. But Tomlin said earlier this week that backups Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch also will get opportunities to show what they can do this offseason.



Regardless, none of those quarterbacks is capable of throwing for 350 yards every week. So if the Steelers are going to stay afloat and win games early, it will be because their defense rounded back into championship form.



“Being a part of the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ defense, you always feel accountable to be successful week in and week out,” McFadden said. “We know we’re going to be called upon to play good football like we’re accustomed to doing. Everything else will work itself out.”

ESPN’s Adam Schefter used his Insider mailbag to make a case for Arizona to sign former Rams quarterback Marc Bulger. The way Schefter sees things, Bulger would make the Cardinals the NFC West favorite.



The Rams were in a tough spot with Bulger because they knew his time in St. Louis had come and gone. Given the Rams’ implosion and his own career nosedive in recent seasons, Bulger could have conceivably been less excited about staying there than some weary fans would have been to see him remain part of the team’s plans. An inflated salary made it impractical for the organization to keep Bulger in a backup role.



Yet, as Schefter points out, Bulger does have the skills to be an effective quarterback and a change of scenery could conceivably jump-start his career. The Rams held onto Bulger until other teams, including the Cardinals, had made moves to address the quarterback position on their rosters. There were few appealing options for Bulger once the Rams finally did release him.



The Cardinals were known to have interest, but they couldn’t wait around all offseason. The quarterback market would have moved on without them. They showed interest in Charlie Whitehurst, then signed Derek Anderson once Seattle landed the San Diego quarterback.



I’m not sold enough on the idea that Bulger would automatically deliver a division title to the Cardinals. At this point, then, it’s a little late to comfortably add Bulger to the quarterback mix in Arizona. What say you?

PITTSBURGH–The Steelers wrapped up their second day of mandatory minicamp Saturday.



Here are several notes to pass along:

• Things remained status quo for the Steelers at quarterback: Byron Leftwich remains on the first team, while Dennis Dixon is the backup. Chances are, Leftwich and Dixon will compete in training camp until Ben Roethlisberger returns from his suspension. But the Steelers have made it pretty clear that Leftwich has the first shot to win the job.
• I have some good news to pass along to Cleveland Browns fans. I talked to Dixon in the locker room Saturday about fellow Oregon alum and Browns rookie safety T.J. Ward, and Dixon vouched that he’s a good player. Cleveland took Ward in the second round, which many draft experts considered a reach. In addition to going to the same college, Dixon said he also played against Ward in high school in California. “He can definitely hit,” Dixon said. “He’s known for that.”
• Steelers Pro Bowl outside linebacker James Harrison rejoined the team Saturday after missing Friday’s minicamp due to a death in the family.
• Pittsburgh cornerback Bryant McFadden, who was acquired in a draft-day trade with the Arizona Cardinals, confirmed to the AFC North blog that Pittsburgh worked out an extension with him through the 2012 season. NFL.com first reported the story earlier this week.