Getty Images
	Jim Caldwell may be a first-year head coach, but he was an assistant in nine Colts-Patriots matchups, so has experience preparing for Patriots coach Bill Belichick.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Paul Kuharsky



Jim Caldwell’s not some newbie who has been dropped into a matchup against New England and is preparing for Bill Belichick’s game-plan wrinkles for the first time.



As one of Tony Dungy ’s former assistants, he was been part of nine Colts-Patriots games, including three in the postseason. Indy was 4-5 in those games.



According to Elias Sports Bureau, Belichick is 28-19 in his career against first-year coaches, 20-11 while with the Patriots. Belichick is 1-2 this year, with losses to Rex Ryan and Josh McDaniels, and a win against Raheem Morris.



“[Caldwell] is not like most first-year coaches. He’s been there for seven years, he’s seen it, he’s dissected the matchups, he’s supervised a lot of the game-planning especially offensively for however many games they’ve played,” Dungy said on a conference call arranged by NBC, for whom he’s now an analyst. “So it’s not like a new guy coming in. He’s very aware of everything that’s taken place those last seven years. I really don’t look at this like a first-year coach in a normal sense.”



Caldwell’s been excellent in his first eight games as Dungy’s successor, maintaining the good thing he inherited.



He’s been a bit more aggressive on offense with some bold fourth-down calls. He’s installed a defensive coordinator, Larry Coyer, and allowed him to increase the frequency is which the team blitzes and plays man defense. His new special-teams coach, Ray Rychleski, hasn’t solved the team’s long-standing return game issues, but he does have the coverage teams playing much better.



Caldwell is tied with Potsy Clark, of the 1931 Portsmouth Spartans, for the second best winning streak to start a career. (You remember those Spartans, of course. They went 11-3 and finished second. Yes, it was the same year the Frankfurt Yellow Jackets went 1-6-1.)



With two more wins, Caldwell will catch Wally Lemm, who won his first 10 in 1961-62 with the Houston Oilers and St. Louis Cardinals.



“They are obviously playing well and he’s got them hitting on all cylinders and playing with a lot of confidence, playing good football,” Belichick said. “I respect the job that he’s done as a head coach, as an assistant coach and the job he’s doing now with the Colts.”



Belichick is notorious for changing things up game to game, so the Colts are unlikely to see much that looks familiar from the Patriots’ performances in recent weeks. The ability of Caldwell, his staff and quarterback Peyton Manning to adjust as they go will be a major storyline in Sunday night’s game.



Former Patriots safety Rodney Harrison, also an NBC analyst, said Belichick would flip him to corner against the Colts, with Ty Law playing some safety.



“The thing that Bill gave us to do was create a lot of freedom by trying to disguise the coverage,” Harrison said on a conference call this week. “… We wanted to create some level of confusion for Peyton Manning as well as jam and wear down Marvin Harrison.”



Dungy said that was very unusual.



Other wrinkles the Patriots used against Dungy’s Colts were more about what Belichick deployed when, not unveiling something brand new.



“Usually what happens is, it’s not something you haven’t seen, it’s just something that you don’t expect or they haven’t done,” Dungy said. “Usually you’ll come into a game, New England’s showing a lot of blitzes, five-man pressures, and in our game they decide to rush three and drop eight, or vice versa. There has been a lot of three-man rush before and now it’s a different look or it’s nickel and dime defense on first down or it’s four-man line.”



“That’s the thing from the Colts’ standpoint that we’ve always admired about the Patriots. They’ve been able to have a different game plan even for halves sometime — first half there is a four-man line, second half there is a three-man line, first half is base defense, second half is nickel or dime. You have to be ready to adjust when you play New England.”



Tom Brady said Caldwell’s Colts play a more straight-up defense, relying on the pass pressure of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.



“They’ll have some new wrinkles,” Brady said. “They always find a way to mix up some of their tendencies. But in the end — through eight games — that’s really what they do. All of that’s on film now.

	AP Photo/Jim Prisching
	Where the blame lies for Aaron Rodgers’ NFL-high 37 sacks has been a source of debate in Green Bay.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert



I’ve tended to deflect the blame on Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers for his NFL-high 37 sacks this season, a pace that would put him within striking distance of David Carr’s record of 76 while playing for Houston in 2002.



There’s no doubt Rodgers has held the ball too long on some occasions, in some instances causing a sack on plays where offensive linemen were coached to block for a quick release. My thought, however, is that a good pass-blocking offensive line can keep a quarterback clean no matter how long he holds the ball. In fact, quarterbacks are often praised for giving receivers extra time to get open.



To help demystify this issue, Hank Gargiulo of ESPN’s Stats & Information timed how long Rodgers has held the ball on every sack this season — from the snap until the point where significant contact or the act of bringing Rodgers to the ground occurred.



The results of Gargiulo’s study are contained in the chart below. Keep in mind this is one person’s attempt at a subjective process. (I was once scolded by a personnel man who threw me a stopwatch and asked me to show him the “accepted” way to time a 40-yard dash. It had something to do with finger placement. Whatever.)

How should we judge this data? It’s important to note that every team has different standards for a quarterback’s release, and often they depend on the type of dropback and route tree associated with the play call. Regardless, in West Coast offenses such as Green Bay’s, the rule of thumb generally is four seconds. Put it this way: There are few plays designed for a quarterback to hold it longer, and given the state of the Packers’ offensive line, I think you can safely assume none of them have been called.



Gargiulo’s chart has some big numbers on it, including 8.0 seconds last week against Tampa Bay and 6.5 seconds two weeks ago against Minnesota. But overall, Rodgers was sacked prior to the four-second mark on 28 of the 37 occasions.



Even if you adjust for subjective timing and the intent of each particular play call, I think this study gives us an important baseline: It’s roughly 3-1. We can fairly blame Rodgers for one of every four sacks he’s taken.



You might consider that a higher number than it should be, but I look at it differently. To me, it means the focus on Rodgers’ role in the sacks shouldn’t overshadow the bigger picture: Responsibility for the majority lies elsewhere.

	Kirby Lee/Image of Sport/US Presswire; Christopher Hanewinckel/US Presswire
	Who would you rather have running your team: Bill Polian or Bill Belichick?

Posted by ESPN.com’s Tim Graham



The running debate every time the New England Patriots play the Indianapolis Colts centers on the two great quarterbacks of this generation and which one you’d rather have to run your offense.



But what about the bigger picture?



Sunday’s game in Lucas Oil Stadium also will be a rematch of organizational masterminds bound for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.



Patriots coach Bill Belichick and Colts president Bill Polian are among the all-time best franchise managers.



If given a choice between the two, which would you rather have running your club?



Here are some notes to help you decide:



Bill Belichick

• 15 seasons as head coach (Cleveland Browns, Patriots)
• Regular-season record: 159-92 (.633)
• Regular-season record minus start-up seasons: 148-71 (.676)
• Playoff record: 27-12 (.692)
• Four Super Bowls (not counting three as New York Giants and Patriots defensive coordinator)
• Three championships (not counting two as Giants defensive coordinator)
• Five division titles
• Key moves: Opted to stick with Tom Brady over Drew Bledsoe. … Traded for Corey Dillon, Randy Moss and Wes Welker. … First-round draft picks include defensive lineman Richard Seymour, defensive end Ty Warren, nose tackle Vince Wilfork, guard Logan Mankins, running back Laurence Maroney, safety Brandon Meriweather and linebacker Jerod Mayo. … Has replaced numerous coordinators in New England.

Bill Polian

• 22 seasons as general manager or president (Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Colts)
• Regular-season record: 222-137 (.618)
• Regular-season record minus start-up seasons: 207-89 (.699)
• Playoff record: 16-14 (.533)
• Four Super Bowls
• One championship
• 11 division titles
• Key moves: Hired head coaches Marv Levy in Buffalo and Tony Dungy in Indianapolis. … Drafted Hall of Fame running back Thurman Thomas in the second round. … Traded for Cornelius Bennett. … Drafted quarterback Peyton Manning first overall, wide receiver Reggie Wayne, defensive end Dwight Freeney and safety Bob Sanders.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert



Here’s how unpredictable the NFL is: As dark as these days are for Chicago and its fans, I have no trouble conceiving the possibility that the Bears could go to San Francisco on three days’ rest and beat the 49ers. Often, that’s how this league works: You get steamrolled one week (or, in the Bears’ case, twice in the past three weeks) and then win a game that logic dictates you shouldn’t.



How could it happen? Let’s run through a few tips as we anticipate an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff:

• Never underestimate how bad the other team might be, or might be playing at the moment. Sure, things seem dire for the Bears as they sit at 4-4, having recently been on the losing end of 45-10 and 41-21 games. But don’t forget the 49ers have lost four consecutive games and haven’t won since the first week of October. San Francisco fans are feeling the same way about the 49ers as you feel about the Bears.
• Don’t oversell to stop tailback Frank Gore. There’s no doubt Gore has been a game-breaker at times this season. But know this: Almost half of his season yardage total have come on three big carries. That’s right. Gore has touchdown runs of 80, 79 and 64 yards; that’s a total of 223 yards. On his other 77 carries, Gore has 224 yards. That means on 96 percent of his runs this season, Gore is averaging 2.9 yards per carry. I’m not diminishing the game-changing potential of a long run. But it’s important to remember that in the big picture, Gore has been pretty well shut down by opposing defenses. If it were me, I wouldn’t necessarily be compelled to bring an eighth defender in the box.
• Consider quarterback Alex Smith eminently shakable and scheme your blitzes accordingly. In his past two starts, Smith has thrown four interceptions and has been sacked eight times. The Bears shouldn’t back off their pressure packages just because Arizona’s Kurt Warner handled them well last week. With the Bears’ injury-depleted secondary, pressure will be at a premium. Smith is more likely to force passes and make poor decisions than Warner or even Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer.
• Resist the urge to remove some pressure from quarterback Jay Cutler. After eight games of an almost nonexistent running game, there is no reason to believe the Bears can suddenly dominate the game on the ground against a Patrick Willis-led defense. It’s true that Cutler has struggled in two prime-time games this season, throwing a combined six interceptions at Green Bay and Atlanta, but he is still the Bears’ offensive MVP. In a time of crisis, you have to count on your top players. Or, at least, go down with them having every opportunity to right the ship.

Let’s circle back on these issues after the game.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Tim Graham



The Miami Dolphins work incredibly hard to gain yards, to consume time off the clock, to get ahead of their opponents.



They know how to grind.



Then their defense gives up a quick, crippling score.



Summary strikes have been an all-too common occurrence for the Dolphins’ defense this season. They’re tied for fifth in allowing touchdown drives of six plays or fewer. They have surrendered 13 of them.



In Sunday’s game against the New England Patriots, the Dolphins opened the second half with a 16-play touchdown drive to take a one-point lead. Three plays later, Randy Moss stiff-armed Vontae Davis and sprinted off for a 71-yard touchdown that won the game.



In Week 2, the Dolphins held the ball for more than 45 minutes against the Indianapolis Colts. The Dolphins took two fourth-quarter leads on drives of 13 plays and 10 plays. The Colts, who started the game with a touchdown on their first play from scrimmage, responded with touchdowns on six plays and four plays.



Only once have the Dolphins not yielded a touchdown in six plays or fewer, in a Week 4 blowout of the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins gave up three apiece to the Colts and the New York Jets in Week 7.



To get an idea of where the Dolphins stand, ESPN Stats & Information investigator Matt Lyon ran the data. Here are the worst 10 teams in allowing touchdowns so quickly:

• Detroit Lions 19
• Tennessee Titans 19
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16
• Carolina Panthers 14
• Miami Dolphins 13
• New York Giants 13
• Cleveland Browns 12
• Kansas City Chiefs 12
• New Orleans Saints 12
• Oakland Raiders 12

Not a lot of playoff teams in that bunch.



On the flip side, only two teams have given up fewer of these touchdown drives than the Jets and Patriots — four each. The Colts and Denver Broncos are best with one apiece.



The Bills are tied for 15th with eight touchdowns allowed in six or fewer plays.

Every week, the Fantasy Aces will provide players, that they feel will surprise the fantasy world by having unexpected success in the upcoming week.  An Ace, King, Queen and Jack - players who, in our opinion, are currently ranked outside the Top 10 but have the opportunity to produce as Top 10 players or close to it at their respective positions.  The final selection will be The Wild Card – one player that has the opportunity to far exceed expectations based on a cozy match-up or prior production.  Anybody can tell you to Always Start Your Studs but sometimes making the right decision for your #3 WR, flex position, questionable Quarterback or Tight End can be the difference in winning or losing.  Getting off to a strong start really takes the pressure off as you move forward.  Best of luck to all of you in Week 10.

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	Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
	Justin Gage’s leaping 33-yard grab set up the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter of the Titans’ win over the 49ers.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Paul Kuharsky



NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Justin Gage moved somewhat slowly through the Titans’ locker room Wednesday afternoon. When it was time to put sweatpants on, he bent over as little as possible.



Still awaiting test results, he said he felt much better Wednesday than he had on Tuesday. Gage hopes he makes the same improvement the next few days, gets on the practice field Friday and can play against the Bills Sunday at LP Field. From the looks of him Wednesday it would be tough for him to recover in time.



His sore lower back is more of an issue on the left side, and was the result of a crash landing on the best and most significant catch for the Titans this season.



He showed off his basketball hops — a 65- or 70-inch vertical, the former Missouri hoopster joked — going up to pull in a 33-yard pass from Vince Young between San Francisco defensive backs Dre’ Bly and Dashon Goldson before crashing hard to the Candlestick Park turf on his back.



The 33-yard gain set the Titans up for Chris Johnson’s second touchdown and put Tennessee ahead for good in the fourth quarter of its second consecutive win.



When I overestimated the Titans in the preseason, I expected more plays like that from Gage. He was fantastic in some training camp practice sessions. But it simply didn’t translate once the games started counting and I thought Jeff Fisher should have given a share of his snaps to rookie Kenny Britt, who works as the third receiver.



Gage had two giant games last season with 147 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears and 104 yards and a score against Pittsburgh.



The Niners game was his best since that Steelers game on Dec. 21, 2008, and he finished with four catches for 97 yards. In addition to the excellent leap, he also ran under a superb 49-yard bomb from Young, perhaps the best throw the quarterback has made as a Titan, earlier in the game.



The Titans hope Gage’s nice day can spark a group that underachieved during an 0-6 start, dropping far too many passes.



According to ESPN Stats & Information, Gage has a catch rate of just 43.9 percent (18 of 41 balls thrown his way), which is 10th worst in the NFL among receivers targeted at least 20 times.



“I felt like it was one of my better catches, at the time it was a big play in the game for us, it put us in scoring position and it helped us get a win,” Gage said. “At the point I was just thinking it would feel better to make the catch and fall than to drop the ball and fall, because you’re going to fall and fall hard regardless …”



“It was probably my biggest catch ever, that was probably the one catch that I’ve gotten the most attention from.”

Posted by ESPN.com’s Mike Sando



You read it here Sunday: The NFL should suspend Tommie Harris after the Bears’ defensive tackle slugged the Cardinals’ Deuce Lutui in the helmet Sunday.



There will be no suspension.



How can that be?



I suspect the league is treating Harris’ ejection as the loose equivalent of a one-game suspension. Harris played only four snaps against the Cardinals before the ejection. Had Harris been ejected in, say, the third quarter, I’m guessing the league would have suspended him for the Bears’ game against the 49ers on Thursday night.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Tim Graham



Since 2003, half of the eight showdowns between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have been decided by four points or fewer. Three of their past five regular-season games fall in this category.

Brady

Manning

Their past three meetings, including a playoff game, have been decided by four points, four points and seven points. In the 10-game series between the quarterbacks, the Indianapolis Colts have scored six more points.



It’s easy to envision Sunday night’s game in Lucas Oil Stadium coming down to the wire.



“When you play them, you know that it’s going to come down to a couple of plays,” Brady said Wednesday. “It’s going to come down to plays in the red area, some of those plays on third [down], because you know they’re going to move the ball. It’s not like he’s going to go out there and throw for 75 yards. He’s probably going to throw for 300 yards.



“They’re going to get down in the red area. It’s just that you have to keep them out in the red area, and you have to take advantage of situational football that you have. You can’t turn the ball over. The game’s where it’s gotten out of hand — one way or another — it’s because of turnovers. … That’s when you start seeing those 14-point wins, those 21-point wins.”

Brady has had a couple of unproductive second halves this year, with the overtime loss in Denver immediately coming to mind.



His numbers for the season, however, are stellar and are strikingly similar to Manning’s.



Brady has a 103.6 passer rating in the second half. That ranks fifth in the NFL. Manning is fourth with a 103.8 passer rating after halftime.



Brady has two fewer completions on nine more attempts and 7 fewer yards.



But Brady has seven touchdowns and no interceptions, compared to Manning’s five touchdowns and one interception.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert



EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. — Of all the statistics Minnesota quarterback Brett Favre put up during the first half of the season, perhaps the most surprising is this: Three interceptions.

	Bruce Kluckhohn/US Presswire
	Brett Favre is on pace for a career-low in interceptions.

That’s right. The NFL’s all-time leader in interceptions (313 in 281 games) has thrown only three through the first eight games of this season. That’s the lowest midseason total of his career, and the figure would probably be lower were it not for two balls tipped into the air by his own receivers.



If Favre maintains anything resembling this pace, he will finish 2009 with a career-low interception total. Currently, that figure stands at 13, set in 1996.



There are a couple of working theories on this development. One is that Favre is not totally comfortable with the Vikings offense, adding a (healthy) level of hesitation that has kept his careless — and carefree — habits at bay. Coach Brad Childress, meanwhile, said Wednesday that Favre has a bounty of weapons and added: “I just don’t think he feels compelled to stick a round peg in a square hole.”



Favre said Wednesday that the low interception total has resulted from “a combination for numerous things” that include the Vikings’ running game, his own good decisions, the play calling of offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and teammates that have “played outstanding.”



I think Favre hit on something on that final example. While he hasn’t thrown many passes up for grabs, as has been his career-long habit, Favre has been bailed out a few times. Most recently, receiver Percy Harvin made a strong catch over his back shoulder while surrounded by three Green Bay defenders two weeks ago in Green Bay. Harvin then pivoted, ran back toward the middle of the field and scored on what became a 51-yard touchdown play.



Favre admitted the throw “was not the best decision” and acknowledged the ball arrived late.



“It was just freaky the way it worked out,” Favre said. “Percy made me look good. He turned what could have been a bad decision into a great play.”