Doug from Chicago writes: Hey Mike,Where do you see Beanie in the rookie of the year race? I feel he has a strong shot. Better YPC than Knowshon Moreno, more TDs than Percy Harvin.

Harvin

Wells

Mike Sando: NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert and I had this debate before the season (and before Brett Favre turned the Vikings’ receivers into stars, I might add). I took Wells. He took Harvin.



My perception is that Harvin has had the greater impact. But if the stats are close enough for us to revisit that one, maybe I should take another look. Harvin is the more dynamic talent, but Wells will get the ball more frequently. I thought Wells could have been a 1,200-yard rusher this season if Arizona wanted to lean on him more heavily. I still think that could have happened. Tim Hightower stepped up some, however, and Hightower is clearly more reliable on passing downs.



Harvin’s role as a kick returner might swing the argument in his favor. He has 2,000 total yards even though migraines have slowed his pace. Wells is gaining momentum as the he gets more opportunities late in the season.



This debate is worth revisiting periodically because both seem headed for productive careers.

Speaking to reporters at Valley Ranch on Thursday, Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo lent his support to wide receiver Roy Williams, saying that he would not stop throwing in his direction. Of course, recent numbers suggest that Romo has already decided to lean on other receivers, which is quite understandable given Williams’ penchant for dropping balls this season.



“No one has lost any confidence in Roy,” Romo said Thursday. “Roy is going to be a huge part of this going forward. He knows that. Hopefully, we’re all going to have some good football ahead of us.”



Meanwhile, ESPN’s Ed Werder has delivered a strong piece on Williams this week. He thinks Jerry Jones’ refusal to admit his mistake with Williams and Wade Phillips’ belief that the wide receiver should receiver an “E” for effort could undermine the Cowboys in the playoffs. And Werder brings up another strong point. Here, I’ll let him say it:



“Not only has Williams’ ineptitude provided Austin the opportunity to become the Cowboys’ most feared offensive player, but Jones is already confronting the reality that Austin is seeking $10 million a season to sign a long-term contract extension, according to league sources,” writes Werder. “Unless the Cowboys remove Williams and his guaranteed money from the roster, they are going to be taking an indefensible position on negotiations with Austin.



“Austin is the player Roy Williams was supposed to be. Meanwhile, Williams is trying to avoid becoming the next Sam Hurd, a wide receiver whose career is devoted to covering kickoffs.”



Hey, let’s not drag poor Sam into this. He’s an undrafted player who’s doing a superb job on special teams. I don’t think Williams can fill that role, either. But strong work by Mr. Werder, as always.

This piece on Jay Cutler’s limited opportunities to move outside the pocket got me wondering: How did Chicago scheme for its new quarterback this season?



There are many ways to look at that question, and here’s one. ESPN Stats & Information tracks each NFL team by key formations over the course of the season. In the chart below, you’ll see how often the Bears have used each of the primary NFL formations and how it compares to the rest of the league.



Keep in mind that these formations are determined by where players line up, not what positions they technically play. In other words, a tight end lined up in the slot would be considered a receiver in this rendering.





As you can see, the Bears have used a basic one-back, two-receiver set more than any other this season — and more than all but two other teams in the NFL. Typically in those situations, you’ll have two tight ends on the field as well.



I think this points to a number of issues we’ve touched on this season. First, the Bears brought a downfield passer into an offense that had de-emphasized the receiver position over the past few years. Second, they’ve displayed limited flexibility in changing their base sets over the course of the season. Third, the Bears’ offense has conflicting intents.



We don’t know whether coach Lovie Smith will return next season, but if he does, it’s hard to imagine him not swapping out at least some members of his offensive staff. Smith shares some of the blame for a rocky transition to Cutler, but offense is not his expertise. He’ll need to find someone with a clear vision for what this offense should be and how best to use its existing personnel.

Last year, the Baltimore Ravens were the ultimate party crashers.



As the sixth and final seed in the AFC playoffs, Baltimore knocked off two division champions in the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans before falling short in its bid for the Super Bowl against the Pittsburgh Steelers.



This season, the Ravens find themselves in a similar position. With a win Sunday over the Oakland Raiders (5-10), Baltimore (8-7) once again will be a wild card looking to take down the AFC’s elite.



But with this year’s team not playing at the same level as last season, will the Ravens get into the postseason and make another deep run?



The AFC North blog checked in with Scouts Inc.’s Matt Williamson to examine six reasons why a repeat of 2008 is no slam dunk for Baltimore.



Issue No. 1: Penalties



Why it’s a problem: The Ravens are the second-most penalized team in the NFL behind the Raiders. Last week, Baltimore had 11 penalties for 113 yards in a loss to Pittsburgh, and two infractions negated touchdowns. As we noted Wednesday, most of Baltimore’s recent errors are physical mistakes. The Ravens play a hard-nosed brand of football. But it won’t help if going too far too often costs the team crucial yards in a postseason game.



Matt Williamson: “I definitely think that’s a weakness of this team. It showed last week, and I thought it showed against the Green Bay Packers — that was a hard game to watch on both sides of the football. One of the reasons I think penalties are a problem is Baltimore’s secondary is not very good. They get a lot of penalties clutching and grabbing downfield with pass interference calls, because they’re outmanned on the outside.”



Scale of concern (1 to 10): 8



Issue No. 2: Thin secondary



Why it’s a problem: Williamson brings us to the next topic, which is a thin secondary. Quarterbacks Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer all are waiting for the Ravens in the AFC playoffs. We’ve already seen what Palmer can do against Baltimore, as the Cincinnati Bengals swept the Ravens in two games. Brady and Manning also led the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts, respectively, to wins over Baltimore in the regular season. Despite a slow start, Baltimore’s defense has been very good down the stretch and is ranked third in the NFL. But expect top quarterbacks to test the Ravens through the air at every opportunity.



Williamson: “To me, their corners and safeties, if Ed Reed is not playing, are massive liabilities. If I were to rank [their issues], that would be my No. 1 concern, especially considering some of the firepower they’re going to have to face.”



Scale of concern: 10



Issue No. 3: Injuries



Why it’s a problem: For the most part, the Ravens have done well fighting through injuries. That’s a testament to the team’s depth and talented roster. But Reed (groin, foot) is the team’s most dynamic player, and he will not be 100 percent the rest of the way. A year ago heading into the playoffs, he was much healthier and playing at an extremely high level. Recently, left tackle Jared Gaither (foot) has been banged-up. That’s another concern. With season-ending injuries to cornerbacks Fabian Washington and Lardarius Webb, the Ravens need to keep the rest of their roster healthy.



Williamson: “I would say it’s a medium issue compared to the others we’ve talked about. Reed is obviously a great player and he’s vastly missed. He makes a lot of problems go away with his range and ability to make up for the players around him on the back end. If he’s out, I don’t like their [playoff] chances at all. Gaither, I thought, was a massive loss against Pittsburgh, too, because Oniel Cousins got killed by LaMarr Woodley.”



Scale of concern: 6



Issue No. 4: Lack of a pass rush



Why it’s a problem: To beat some of the aforementioned quarterbacks in the playoffs, the Ravens will need to pressure them. The Ravens are ranked No. 22 in the NFL with 29 sacks in 15 games. Struggling teams such as the Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns and Raiders all have registered more sacks than Baltimore.



Williamson: “I would say this is a moderate issue, right in the middle of the road. I think the Ravens generate a little more pressure than their sack numbers indicate. They don’t always get home. But they are nowhere near the pass-rushing team they were with [former defensive coordinator] Rex Ryan or in recent memory, and that’s a big problem.”



Scale of concern: 7



Issue No. 5: Offensive identity



Why it’s a problem: All year the Ravens have gone through an identity crisis offensively. Last year they were a running team. This year Baltimore has gone back and forth in trying to become a pass-oriented team with quarterback Joe Flacco or run-oriented team with tailback Ray Rice. It appears the Ravens are sticking to the ground game for now, which is smart to do this time of year.



Williamson: “Because they drafted so well, it made the Ravens change their identity. Flacco far exceeded expectations, and their second-round pick in 2008, Ray Rice, they quickly realized was a stud. He’s best when you incorporate him in the passing game and out of the shotgun. They used a lot of shotgun when Rice was at Rutgers. He can do everything, but he’s best when he’s used as a Maurice Jones-Drew, do-it-all type of guy. So, in turn, their offensive identity changed and there’s always going to be growing pains with that.”



Scale of concern: 5



Issue No. 6: Road record



Why it’s a problem: When clicking, Baltimore is a team that can go on the road, punish the home team and quiet any stadium in the NFL. This year, that usually hasn’t been the case. The Ravens are 2-5 on the road, and playoff-bound teams such as the Bengals and Packers pounded the Ravens physically at home. Baltimore probably will not host a game for the rest of the season. So if the team does make the playoffs, the Ravens need to re-establish that rugged road mentality.



Williamson: “I know why they’re good at home. That’s one of the hardest stadiums to play in the league. But I don’t know why they’re not excelling on the road. My first thought is the Ravens have really young offensive tackles and a young running back and quarterback. Maybe they aren’t adjusted to the road life so much.”



Scale of concern: 8

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Two years ago, Buddy Nix and Marty Schottenheimer were shopping around for jobs together and appeared close to landing with the Atlanta Falcons.



With news the Buffalo Bills have promoted Nix from their scouting department to general manager, you have to wonder if this opens the door for Schottenheimer to be the Bills’ next head coach.



On Nov. 24, Schottenheimer told the audience of “The Red Zone,” his show on Sirius NFL Radio, that he wasn’t interested in returning to the sidelines.



“From the coaching standpoint of it, you know, I’ll be very candid with you and say it’s nice to think that people would consider you,” Schottenheimer said, “but the reality of it is is that after 30 great years, I’m really not going to go back down that road again.”



Sure, and Bill Parcells was done coaching after the New York Jets. And Nick Saban wasn’t a candidate for the Alabama job.



Could Nix’s promotion sway Schottenheimer, who played linebacker for the Bills in the 1960s?



When the tandem was being considered for the Falcons, Chargers general manager A.J. Smith noted how close Nix and Schottenheimer were in San Diego.



“If true, I believe a Buddy Nix-Marty Schottenheimer team in Atlanta would be a perfect fit,” Smith told the San Diego Union-Tribune. “Buddy got along well with Schottenheimer. They socialized together, went out to dinner, golfed together, sat together on the plane, talked football all the time.”



The Falcons instead hired Thomas Dimitroff, from the New England Patriots front office, to be general manager and Mike Smith to be head coach.

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — The Buffalo Bills will introduce Buddy Nix as their general manager at a 2:30 p.m. news conference.



Nix rejoined the Bills as a college scout just before the 2009 draft after a year away from football. He left the club in 2001 when former Bills GM John Butler took over the San Diego Chargers in 2001. Nix was the Chargers’ director of player personnel for two seasons and GM A.J. Smith’s assistant for six years.



The Nix appointment is the first significant step in a front-office reorganization that could doom the futures of vice president of pro personnel John Guy and vice president of college scouting Tom Modrak. The Bills haven’t gone to the playoffs for 10 straight seasons.



The Bills complied with the Rooney Rule, which mandates a minority candidate be considered for every GM or head coaching vacancy, by interviewing Guy.



Nix’s first major decision will be naming a head coach. The Bills fired Dick Jauron on Nov. 17 and promoted defensive coordinator Perry Fewell to interim head coach.

As we’ve discussed before, ties for NFL draft order are broken using reverse order of strength of schedule. We can’t determine the final numbers until the season is over, but I think we can say this with some certainty: Detroit remains in the running for the No. 1 overall pick.



As of today, the Lions are in the No. 2 position. But if they lose Sunday to Chicago, and St. Louis wins at home against San Francisco, they would finish tied for the worst record in the NFL. Week 17 has yet to be played, so we don’t know the final strength of schedule numbers. But through Week 16, here’s the way it stands for the potential top four teams in the draft:



1. St. Louis Rams (1-14) : .525

2. Detroit Lions (2-13): .517

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-12): .558

4. Kansas City Chiefs (3-12) : .521



(Remember, strength of schedule is the combined winning percentage of a team’s opponents.)



I think you all have figured out by now that I’m no math major, so I would welcome your challenges to this assumption. Because 94 percent of the NFL’s games have already been played, I’m not sure there can be enough movement in the strength of schedule numbers for the Lions to overtake the Rams. So on the surface, that gives the Lions a decent chance of having a lower strength of schedule if they finish with a 2-14 record along with the Rams.



If that were the case, the Lions would have the No. 1 overall pick.



Sunday is going to be a busy day on a number of levels here in the NFC North, but strength of schedule will be one of the many threads we monitor. You’ll know as soon as we know where the Lions will pick in the draft.

What’s the bigger distraction: Heading into the final Sunday of the regular season undefeated or heading into the final Sunday of the regular season coming off the firestorm a Week 16 lay-down set off?



I’d argue B.



But the Colts are a team loaded with pros who know how to let go.



While the debate over what they did against the Jets may roar on, the team has to move on, which is exactly what Peyton Manning says it’s doing.



“I do think it is time to move on,” he told Indianapolis reporters. “The players certainly have moved on. I understand we have to answer questions about it, and if you go outside of the building you can get asked about it. But I do think we have important things to focus on this week in trying to get better during practice this week, getting ready for Buffalo and get ready as we approach the postseason to be playing good football. I think it is important for the players to focus on the future and what’s coming up for us.”



Manning used Curtis Painter, the rookie who became backup QB when Jim Sorgi got hurt and who was shell-shocked when inserted against the Jets, as a broad example for the whole team’s recovery from its first loss.



“I think he’s OK. I think he’s in a good frame of mind,” Manning said. “… It was a tough first experience for him. I definitely thought it was a tough situation for him to enter into a game. I think he’ll be better for it. I think everybody wants their first experience to be positive. I certainly wanted mine [to be], and mine wasn’t either. I do think that you are better from the experience. I think he’ll benefit from it.



“I think the whole team can benefit from it, I really do. It was not a pleasant experience for anyone on Sunday. I think we can turn it into a positive and come even closer together as a team and be a better team for it, I really do.”



If the loss to the Jets and the fallout serves to further bond the Colts, that would be a great side effect.



But I hold these truths to be self-evident no matter what happens:

• If the Colts win the Super Bowl, it does not mean we can say the Colts did the right thing by sacrificing the Jets game.
• If the Colts do not win the Super Bowl, it does not mean we can say the Colts did the wrong thing by sacrificing the Jets game.

The end may justify the means. But in this scenario, you can’t convince me the means will necessarily create the end.

When someone mentions “Big Mo,” I always think of a former baseball slugger. In football, however, it refers to another opaque entity: momentum.



You’re hearing that word bandied about regularly as we approach the NFL playoffs, perhaps in no division more than the NFC North. Our two playoff teams are going in opposite directions, and the debate is on as to whether their late-season performances will impact their postseason run. How much importance should we place on Minnesota’s 1-3 record in December? What does Green Bay’s 3-1 mark over the same stretch indicate?



Conventional wisdom suggests teams playing well at the end of the regular season are more likely to experience postseason success. In this ESPN Insider piece, Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders terms that notion “a crock,” noting examples from both sides of the equation — hot teams that failed in the playoffs (Atlanta, 2008) and cold teams that marched through the postseason (Indianapolis, 2006).



If you’re talking about the ultimate goal of reaching the Super Bowl, however, recent history gives the Packers a much better chance than the Vikings.



I took a somewhat arbitrary look at each of the 18 teams that have reached the nine Super Bowls during this decade, measuring their records in December/January regular-season games. Of that group, 16 had winning records over that time period. The 2006 Colts were the only team that made it after losing more games than they won in December/January.





Take that for what you will. The Vikings and Packers are. To little surprise, the Vikings are downplaying the idea of momentum this week while the Packers are emphasizing the necessity to maintain it.



In Minnesota, entering the playoffs on a winning note is only one of multiple motivations to win Sunday against the New York Giants. Most important, a victory would give the Vikings a chance at a first-round bye in the playoffs, followed by a divisional round game at home.



If the Vikings continue their current path, quarterback Brett Favre said Monday night, their playoff run will be over “fairly quickly.” But speaking to Minnesota reporters this week, coach Brad Childress articulated a familiar refrain.



“You would love to have momentum,” Childress said. “With all that said, it’s a 12-team tournament. You can cite any number of cases where people have come in with momentum. All the records fall by the wayside at that point. It’s a single-elimination tournament. Whether it’s a bounce of the ball or how you are feeling or ‘we get no respect.’ Whatever it is that motivates you at that time, the [playoff] game is going to be won on the football field and regular-season records won’t have anything to do with it.”



That’s true from a mathematical standpoint, but there is a difference between teams that have been on the short end of lucky breaks and teams that are playing poorly. I think we can agree the Vikings are closer to the latter category and need to make tangible improvements in specific areas to render “momentum” moot. As we discussed late Monday night, their pass defense has slipped considerably this month, and their offensive line is struggling. You only have to look at the Vikings’ 10-1 start to know those issues are fixable, but even Childress admitted the Vikings “need to keep working to find ourselves and get back to some of the minutia that makes you a good football team.”



The Packers, meanwhile, could walk onto the field Sunday in Arizona with no tangible incentive to win. Based on the results of earlier games, their playoff seeding could be locked in. There will be a temptation to protect key players and limit the Cardinals’ insight into their schemes in anticipation of a postseason re-match.



Doing so, however, would risk disrupting the confidence the Packers have built in winning three of their four December games and six of their past seven overall. There is no way to measure that karma. But coaching a football team is as much about feel and instincts as it is about game planning and decision making, and the Packers’ Mike McCarthy has left no doubt about his intentions.



“Our approach is going to be the same for this week as it has been for the first 15,” McCarthy told reporters in Green Bay. “It’s important for us to continue the way we have been playing the last seven weeks, and that’s really the message to the football team. … We’re not in this situation to back off. It’s important for us to continue our style of play. … I think routine in your preparation and your approach is a big part of your success, so we’re going to go out there and our goal is to go 11-5.”



The true test will be whether McCarthy plays his starters for the entire game if the outcome has no postseason implication. Everyone has a thought on momentum, but I think Minnesota linebacker Ben Leber put it best.



“Momentum is important,” Leber said. “It’s not everything.”



We’ll soon find out.

Carolina receiver Muhsin Muhammad and Tampa Bay receiver Antonio Bryant each made a lot of noise Wednesday about wanting to stay with their teams next year, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to happen for either player.



In fact, the odds are probably against it for both.



Let’s start with Muhammad. He’s 36 and he’s not under contract for next year. He’s spent most of his career with the Panthers and has deep ties to Charlotte. He’s been reasonably productive this year, but the Panthers are painfully aware they need to upgrade at wide receiver. Muhammad and Dwayne Jarrett haven’t been able to steer much coverage away from Steve Smith, and defenses have been able to load up on him.



The current regime knows it needs to get Smith some help. If a new regime comes in, that should be obvious to whoever is breaking down film of this year. The Panthers are going to add one or two quality receivers through the draft or free agency.



On the plus side, the Panthers may be interested in keeping Muhammad around as a third or fourth receiver. Despite his age, his skills haven’t evaporated dramatically, and teammates have always viewed him as a good guy to have in the locker room. If Muhammad’s willing to play at a low salary and accept a backup role, he still could have a job in Charlotte.



The same probably is not true for Bryant in Tampa Bay. He pretty much has played — and talked — his way out of a future with the Bucs.



The team put the franchise tag (nearly $10 million) on Bryant this year because there was uncertainty if he could maintain the level of play he achieved last season. That’s turned out to be the right call because Bryant hasn’t come anywhere close to what he did last season.



Injuries have been a factor. But, even when healthy, Bryant hasn’t done all that much. To make matters worse, he keeps talking and putting the blame on everyone else — mainly the coaching staff and rookie quarterback Josh Freeman.



That’s not a good idea. Freeman is the franchise and taking repeated shots at him isn’t going to get Bryant a new contract with the Bucs. Fact is, if the current regime stays, Bryant already has sealed his own fate.



The Bucs are committed to getting Freeman all the help they can, and they’ll probably bring in at least two receivers capable of starting. Bryant has made sure he won’t be one of them.